College Football Week 3 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
22 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 3, 3 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is ORE -70.5 (PRST at ORE). The highest total is 86.5 in FSU at ALA. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #7 LSU @ #8 MISS
- #22 HOU @ #13 TTU
- #16 SMU @ #23 LOU
- UTSA @ #1 TEX
- #2 UGA @ ARK
- MSU @ #3 ND
- WKU @ #4 IU
- #5 MIA @ WAKE
- KENT @ #6 OSU
- UK @ #9 TA&M
- FSU @ #10 ALA
- #11 BYU @ CSU
- #12 USC @ RUTG
- BUFF @ #14 PSU
- KENN @ #15 TENN
- USU @ #17 UTAH
- UNI @ #18 IOWA
- UTEP @ #19 MICH
- TROY @ #20 MIZ
- PRST @ #21 ORE
- UNM @ #24 OU
- WVU vs #25 UVA
#7 LSU Tigers at #8 Ole Miss Rebels
LSU offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows 26% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
- MISS allows 21% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
Projected: 53.2 points, 434 passing and 276 rushing yards. MISS allows 23.5 points per game (#83 in the FBS).
MISS offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 86% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
- LSU allows third-down conversions 59% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
Projected: 23.2 points, 195 passing and 20 rushing yards. LSU allows 12.0 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kewan Lacy (MISS, RB) -245
- Dilin Jones (LSU, RB) -205
- Sam Leavitt (LSU, QB) -120
#22 Houston Cougars at #13 Texas Tech Red Raiders
HOU offense vs TTU defense Even
- TTU allows 48% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
- TTU allows 34% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for HOU).
Projected: 44.1 points, 340 passing and 159 rushing yards. TTU allows 17.0 points per game (#51 in the FBS).
TTU offense vs HOU defense Even
- HOU allows 92% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
- HOU allows third-down conversions 50% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
Projected: 20.9 points, 311 passing and 13 rushing yards. HOU allows 13.0 points per game (#31 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- J'Koby Williams (TTU, RB) -165
- Cameron Dickey (TTU, RB) +100
- Amare Thomas (HOU, WR) +110
#16 SMU Mustangs at #23 Louisville Cardinals
SMU offense vs LOU defense Even
- LOU allows 28% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
- LOU allows 27% more points than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
Projected: 52.9 points, 567 passing and 112 rushing yards. LOU allows 27.0 points per game (#100 in the FBS).
LOU offense vs SMU defense Favors defense
- SMU allows third-down conversions 60% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for LOU).
- SMU allows 26% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for LOU).
Projected: 38.9 points, 252 passing and 219 rushing yards. SMU allows 17.0 points per game (#51 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Isaac Brown (LOU, RB) -165
- Kendrick Raphael (SMU, RB) -150
- Lincoln Kienholz (LOU, QB) -120
UTSA Roadrunners at #1 Texas Longhorns
UTSA offense vs TEX defense Favors offense
- TEX allows third-down conversions 39% more often than an average FBS defense (good for UTSA).
- TEX allows 29% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UTSA).
Projected: 26.9 points, 310 passing and 199 rushing yards. TEX allows 15.0 points per game (#43 in the FBS).
TEX offense vs UTSA defense Favors offense
- UTSA allows 85% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
- UTSA allows third-down conversions 27% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
Projected: 41.1 points, 303 passing and 275 rushing yards. UTSA allows 21.0 points per game (#70 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Hollywood Smothers (TEX, RB) -250
- Raleek Brown (TEX, RB) -209
- Cam Coleman (TEX, WR) -145
#2 Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks
UGA offense vs ARK defense Even
- ARK allows 35% more points than an average FBS defense (good for UGA).
- ARK allows 28% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
Projected: 89.4 points, 334 passing and 181 rushing yards. ARK allows 28.5 points per game (#111 in the FBS).
ARK offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 52% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ARK).
- UGA allows 50% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for ARK).
Projected: 11.1 points, 136 passing and 50 rushing yards. UGA allows 11.5 points per game (#21 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Nate Frazier (UGA, RB) -300
- Chauncey Bowens (UGA, RB) -150
- Gunner Stockton (UGA, QB) -124
Michigan State Spartans at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MSU offense vs ND defense Favors defense
- ND allows 69% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MSU).
- ND allows 48% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MSU).
Projected: 10.0 points, 162 passing and 106 rushing yards. ND allows 6.5 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
ND offense vs MSU defense Favors defense
- MSU allows 36% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
- MSU allows 29% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
Projected: 29.6 points, 235 passing and 81 rushing yards. MSU allows 13.5 points per game (#35 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Aneyas Williams (ND, RB) -335
- Nolan James Jr. (ND, RB) -205
- Jordan Faison (ND, WR) -122
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at #4 Indiana Hoosiers
WKU offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 62% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WKU).
- IU allows 35% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WKU).
Projected: 6.4 points, 103 passing and 90 rushing yards. IU allows 8.0 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
IU offense vs WKU defense Favors offense
- WKU allows 181% more points than an average FBS defense (good for IU).
- WKU allows 121% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for IU).
Projected: 150.2 points, 232 passing and 476 rushing yards. WKU allows 59.5 points per game (#138 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Charlie Becker (IU, WR) -330
- Lee Beebe Jr. (IU, RB) -275
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) -250
#5 Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
MIA offense vs WAKE defense Favors offense
- WAKE allows third-down conversions 34% more often than an average FBS defense (good for MIA).
- WAKE allows 23% more points than an average FBS defense (good for MIA).
Projected: 74.8 points, 517 passing and 301 rushing yards. WAKE allows 26.0 points per game (#97 in the FBS).
WAKE offense vs MIA defense Favors defense
- MIA allows 69% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WAKE).
- MIA allows 54% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WAKE).
Projected: 11.7 points, 211 passing and 89 rushing yards. MIA allows 6.5 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA, RB) -280
- Malachi Toney (MIA, WR) -240
- Cooper Barkate (MIA, WR) +115
Kent State Golden Flashes at #6 Ohio State Buckeyes
KENT offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 37% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for KENT).
- OSU allows 36% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for KENT).
Projected: 11.5 points, 132 passing and 109 rushing yards. OSU allows 13.5 points per game (#35 in the FBS).
OSU offense vs KENT defense Favors offense
- KENT allows 70% more points than an average FBS defense (good for OSU).
- KENT allows 34% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for OSU).
Projected: 67.1 points, 428 passing and 221 rushing yards. KENT allows 36.0 points per game (#128 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU, WR) -500
- Bo Jackson (OSU, RB) -360
- Legend Bey (OSU, RB) -135
Kentucky Wildcats at #9 Texas A&M Aggies
UK offense vs TA&M defense Favors defense
- TA&M allows 53% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
- TA&M allows third-down conversions 49% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
Projected: 14.6 points, 158 passing and 81 rushing yards. TA&M allows 10.0 points per game (#15 in the FBS).
TA&M offense vs UK defense Favors offense
- UK allows third-down conversions 39% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TA&M).
- UK allows 37% more points than an average FBS defense (good for TA&M).
Projected: 67.1 points, 234 passing and 140 rushing yards. UK allows 29.0 points per game (#113 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Rueben Owens II (TA&M, RB) -230
- Marcel Reed (TA&M, QB) -110
- Jamarion Morrow (TA&M, RB) -109
Florida State Seminoles at #10 Alabama Crimson Tide
FSU offense vs ALA defense Favors defense
- ALA allows third-down conversions 88% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for FSU).
- ALA allows 74% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FSU).
Projected: 18.5 points, 125 passing and 54 rushing yards. ALA allows 13.5 points per game (#35 in the FBS).
ALA offense vs FSU defense Favors offense
- FSU allows 75% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for ALA).
- FSU allows third-down conversions 62% more often than an average FBS defense (good for ALA).
Projected: 48.3 points, 392 passing and 153 rushing yards. FSU allows 22.0 points per game (#76 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Daniel Hill (ALA, RB) -300
- Keelon Russell (ALA, QB) -111
- Ryan Williams () -106
#11 BYU Cougars at Colorado State Rams
BYU offense vs CSU defense Even
- CSU allows 39% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for BYU).
- CSU allows third-down conversions 24% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
Projected: 39.7 points, 196 passing and 316 rushing yards. CSU allows 18.5 points per game (#61 in the FBS).
CSU offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 43% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for CSU).
- BYU allows 42% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CSU).
Projected: 26.3 points, 284 passing and 131 rushing yards. BYU allows 12.0 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- LJ Martin (BYU, RB) -330
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU, QB) -215
- Kyler Kasper (BYU, WR) +125
#12 USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
USC offense vs RUTG defense Favors offense
- RUTG allows 53% more points than an average FBS defense (good for USC).
- RUTG allows 39% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for USC).
Projected: 66.5 points, 382 passing and 240 rushing yards. RUTG allows 32.5 points per game (#122 in the FBS).
RUTG offense vs USC defense Favors defense
- USC allows 24% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for RUTG).
- USC allows 13% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for RUTG).
Projected: 18.5 points, 239 passing and 69 rushing yards. USC allows 18.7 points per game (#62 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- King Miller (USC, RB) -225
- Waymond Jordan (USC, RB) -130
- KJ Duff (RUTG, WR) -130
Buffalo Bulls at #14 Penn State Nittany Lions
BUFF offense vs PSU defense Favors defense
- PSU allows 79% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for BUFF).
- PSU allows 48% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BUFF).
Projected: 4.4 points, 114 passing and 93 rushing yards. PSU allows 4.5 points per game (#1 in the FBS).
PSU offense vs BUFF defense Favors offense
- BUFF allows 47% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for PSU).
- BUFF allows 18% more points than an average FBS defense (good for PSU).
Projected: 42.5 points, 436 passing and 140 rushing yards. BUFF allows 25.0 points per game (#90 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Carson Hansen (PSU, RB) -285
- James Peoples (PSU, RB) -105
- Rocco Becht (PSU, QB) -105
Kennesaw State Owls at #15 Tennessee Volunteers
KENN offense vs TENN defense Even
- TENN allows 37% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for KENN).
- TENN allows 34% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for KENN).
Projected: 24.9 points, 160 passing and 230 rushing yards. TENN allows 16.5 points per game (#49 in the FBS).
TENN offense vs KENN defense Even
- KENN allows third-down conversions 33% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
- KENN allows 27% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
Projected: 36.9 points, 207 passing and 348 rushing yards. KENN allows 15.5 points per game (#45 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- DeSean Bishop (TENN, RB) -600
- Javin Gordon (TENN, RB) -180
- Mike Matthews (TENN, WR) -155
Utah State Aggies at #17 Utah Utes
USU offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 43% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for USU).
- UTAH allows 34% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for USU).
Projected: 8.8 points, 200 passing and 79 rushing yards. UTAH allows 12.0 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
UTAH offense vs USU defense Favors defense
- USU allows 22% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
- USU allows 20% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
Projected: 57.9 points, 285 passing and 196 rushing yards. USU allows 22.5 points per game (#78 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH, RB) -335
- Devon Dampier (UTAH, QB) -176
- Braden Pegan (UTAH, WR) +100
Northern Iowa Panthers at #18 Iowa Hawkeyes
UNI offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 69% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UNI).
- IOWA allows 43% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UNI).
Projected: 12.3 points, 152 passing and 76 rushing yards. IOWA allows 6.5 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
IOWA offense vs UNI defense Favors offense
- UNI allows third-down conversions 44% more often than an average FBS defense (good for IOWA).
- UNI allows 38% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for IOWA).
Projected: 31.7 points, 282 passing and 127 rushing yards. UNI allows 24.0 points per game.
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Xavier Williams (IOWA, RB) -700
- Kamari Moulton (IOWA, RB) -650
- Nathan McNeil (IOWA, RB) -260
UTEP Miners at #19 Michigan Wolverines
UTEP offense vs MICH defense Favors defense
- MICH allows 48% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UTEP).
- MICH allows 31% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UTEP).
Projected: 13.2 points, 113 passing and 168 rushing yards. MICH allows 11.0 points per game (#18 in the FBS).
MICH offense vs UTEP defense Favors offense
- UTEP allows 44% more points than an average FBS defense (good for MICH).
- UTEP allows third-down conversions 20% more often than an average FBS defense (good for MICH).
Projected: 21.6 points, 116 passing and 145 rushing yards. UTEP allows 30.5 points per game (#118 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jordan Marshall (MICH, RB) -300
- Bryce Underwood (MICH, QB) -230
- Savion Hiter (MICH, RB) -150
Troy Trojans at #20 Missouri Tigers
TROY offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows third-down conversions 40% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TROY).
- MIZ allows 33% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TROY).
Projected: 24.0 points, 129 passing and 135 rushing yards. MIZ allows 17.5 points per game (#57 in the FBS).
MIZ offense vs TROY defense Even
- TROY allows 39% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
- TROY allows 10% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
Projected: 41.2 points, 356 passing and 117 rushing yards. TROY allows 19.0 points per game (#63 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jamal Roberts (MIZ, RB) -450
- Donovan Olugbode (MIZ, WR) -110
- Austin Simmons (MIZ, QB) +120
Portland State Vikings at #21 Oregon Ducks
PRST offense vs ORE defense Favors offense
- ORE allows 56% more points than an average FBS defense (good for PRST).
- ORE allows 31% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for PRST).
Projected: 34.8 points, 323 passing and 129 rushing yards. ORE allows 33.0 points per game (#123 in the FBS).
ORE offense vs PRST defense Favors offense
- PRST allows 106% more points than an average FBS defense (good for ORE).
- PRST allows 63% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for ORE).
Projected: 67.0 points, 369 passing and 170 rushing yards. PRST allows 43.7 points per game.
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jordon Davison (ORE, RB) -600
- Dierre Hill Jr. (ORE, RB) -500
- Evan Stewart (ORE, WR) -200
New Mexico Lobos at #24 Oklahoma Sooners
UNM offense vs OU defense Favors defense
- OU allows 60% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UNM).
- OU allows 51% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UNM).
Projected: 21.7 points, 82 passing and 258 rushing yards. OU allows 8.5 points per game (#13 in the FBS).
OU offense vs UNM defense Favors defense
- UNM allows 67% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OU).
- UNM allows 58% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OU).
Projected: 10.1 points, 87 passing and 74 rushing yards. UNM allows 7.0 points per game (#9 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Lloyd Avant (OU, RB) -210
- John Mateer (OU, QB) -125
- Isaiah Sategna III (OU, WR) -105
West Virginia Mountaineers vs #25 Virginia Cavaliers
WVU offense vs UVA defense Favors defense
- UVA allows 74% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WVU).
- UVA allows 48% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WVU).
Projected: 10.8 points, 111 passing and 155 rushing yards. UVA allows 5.5 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
UVA offense vs WVU defense Even
- WVU allows 35% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for UVA).
- WVU allows 27% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UVA).
Projected: 34.0 points, 260 passing and 197 rushing yards. WVU allows 15.5 points per game (#45 in the FBS).
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 3. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 3 plus any Week 3 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
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