How to calculate the break-even win rate
The break-even win rate is the price’s implied probability: 1 divided by the decimal odds. Win more often than that at the same price and the bet earns money over the long run; win less and it loses.
- Plus odds: 100 ÷ (odds + 100). Minus odds: |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100).
- At -110 you need 52.38%: the extra 2.38 points over a coin flip pay for the vig.
- Compare it with a prop’s hit rate or your own estimate. The gap is your edge, if your estimate is sound.
Questions
What win rate do I need at -110?
52.38%. That is 110 ÷ 210. Anything below it loses money over many bets, anything above makes money.
Why is the break-even rate above 50% at -110?
At true even money (+100 or -100) the break-even rate is exactly 50%. At -110 it is 52.38% because the vig built into the price has to be covered too.
How does a hit rate compare with the break-even rate?
A hit rate such as 7 of the last 10 (70%) only means something next to the price: if the line needs 55% to break even, 70% looks like an edge, but only if the sample reflects the player’s current role.
Does break-even account for pushes?
No. It assumes a bet either wins or loses; if pushes (refunds) are possible, the real break-even rate on decided bets is slightly different.
Put it into practice: Player prop research · Sportsbook odds comparison. Livdy shows every book’s price side by side and the game logs behind every prop hit rate.