A hit rate only means something next to a price
Seven of ten is 70%. If the over is priced at -250 (71% implied), the hit rate says the price is about right, not that the bet is good. Always convert the price to implied probability and compare the two.
Livdy Props shows the hit rate and every book’s price for the same line together, so the comparison is on one screen.
Sample size: 10 games is not much
A player who truly clears a line 55% of the time will hit 7 of 10 more than a quarter of the time by luck. Look at the season, the last 5 and last 10 together; when they agree, the signal is stronger.
Check what changed
Old games only predict new ones when the situation is the same. Before trusting a hit rate, check:
- Role: snap share, target share and carries. A receiver who moved into the slot or a back who lost goal-line work is a different player.
- Teammates: an injured starter changes everyone else’s volume.
- Opponent: how the defense this week handles the stat (Defense Rankings and Role Breakdown show this).
- Game script: big underdogs throw more; big favorites run more late.
Look at the margin, not just hit or miss
A player who cleared 59.5 yards with 61, 60 and 62 is not the same as one who cleared it with 95, 110 and 88. The game logs behind the hit rate show how close the misses and the hits were, and alternate-line ladders show the hit rate at every nearby line.
Put it into practice: Player Prop Research Built on Real Game Logs. Research player props with hit rates built from real game logs, alternate-line ladders, matchup history by role and the best sportsbook price for every line.
Questions
What is a good hit rate for a player prop?
There is no fixed number. A hit rate is only good if it is clearly above the implied probability of the price you can get, over a sample that reflects the player’s current role.
Should I use last 5 or last 10 games?
Use both, plus the season. Recent games capture role changes; longer samples smooth out luck. Agreement between them is the strongest signal.
Where do Livdy’s hit rates come from?
From official box scores for every game this season, the same game logs shown under each hit rate.