Per game, not season totals
Teams play different numbers of games by any given week because of byes, so totals mislead. Rank defenses on what they allow per game: points, passing yards, rushing yards, explosive plays, sacks, red-zone touchdowns and takeaways.
Use the stats props are built from
A defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed may still be 5th against the run. Match the stat to the bet: rushing yards allowed for a running back’s yards, passing yards and explosive passes for a receiver, red-zone touchdowns allowed for touchdown props, sacks for a quarterback’s pressure risk.
Recent form: the last three games
Defenses change during a season with injuries and scheme changes. Compare the season number with the last three games; a big gap is worth investigating before you bet on either.
The matchup is what matters
A weak defense matters more against an offense that can exploit it. Livdy projects each offense against the defense it faces: the offense’s own average, scaled by how far the defense is from league average. A stat leans when the defense moves it 8% or more, and two or more leans the same way call the matchup for the offense or the defense.
The free weekly NFL preview shows the two biggest leans for every game.
Put it into practice: NFL Betting Analytics and Matchup Trends. NFL betting analytics with every sportsbook’s lines, defense rankings, matchup trends, TD scorer odds and player prop hit rates for every game this week.
Questions
Are defense rankings adjusted for schedule?
Livdy’s rankings are the raw per-game numbers each defense allowed. The matchup projection combines them with the offense it faces this week.
How early in the season are defense rankings useful?
After three or four games they start to mean something; before that, a single blowout can swing a ranking. Weigh early-season ranks lightly.