Buying and selling points
Moving the line in your favor (taking +6.5 instead of +3.5) costs price: the odds get shorter. Moving it against you (laying -7.5 instead of -3.5) pays a longer price. Every alternate line is the same game, with the price adjusted for how likely the new number is.
Alt player prop ladders
Books offer ladders such as 40+, 60+, 80+ and 100+ receiving yards, each at a longer price. Each rung has its own implied probability, and its own hit rate in the player’s game logs.
Livdy’s alternate-line ladders put each rung’s hit rate next to its best price, so you can see which rung, if any, is priced generously.
How to judge an alternate price
Convert the price to implied probability and compare it with how often the outcome actually happens.
- For spreads and totals, check how often games land in the range you are buying through (key numbers make some half points worth far more than others).
- For props, compare the rung’s hit rate over a sample that reflects the player’s current role.
- Compare books: alt lines vary more between books than main lines do.
Put it into practice: Player Prop Research Built on Real Game Logs. Research player props with hit rates built from real game logs, alternate-line ladders, matchup history by role and the best sportsbook price for every line.
Questions
Are alternate lines a good bet?
Only when the price is generous for the true chance of the outcome. Books often price alt lines with a bigger margin than main lines, so comparing books matters even more.
What is the difference between an alternate line and a teaser?
An alternate line moves one bet and reprices it. A teaser moves the line on several legs at once at a fixed price, and all legs must win.