Compare the same market, line and price
Two prices are only comparable on the same line. Chiefs -3 at -120 and Chiefs -3.5 at +100 are different bets: one loses on a 3-point win, the other pushes. Compare the line first (the spread or total number), then the price.
Around key numbers in the NFL (3 and 7 on spreads, 41, 44 and 47 on totals) half a point is worth a lot. Paying a little more juice to get the better side of a key number is often the right trade.
Use the consensus to spot an outlier
When most books sit on the same number and one book is a half point or more away, that book is the outlier. Sometimes it is slow to move; sometimes it is shading a side it already has too much money on. Either way, if the outlier is on your side, it is the best bet available.
Livdy’s weekly slate shows the consensus line next to each book’s price, and the opening line beside today’s, so you can see the market and its outliers at a glance.
Read the line movement
A line that moves from -2.5 to -4 between open and kickoff tells you where the money and the information went. Getting the number before a move is one of the clearest signs of a good bet (see closing line value).
Movement right after an injury report is information. Movement with no news usually means a large bettor or a group of books following each other.
Remove the vig to see the fair price
A book’s two prices add up to more than 100% implied probability. Removing that margin (de-vigging) gives the fair price the book really thinks. Comparing your price with a de-vigged market average is how professional bettors judge whether a bet is worth taking.
- Convert both sides to implied probability.
- Divide each by their total, so the two add up to 100%.
- Convert back to odds: that is the no-vig fair price.
Put it into practice: Sportsbook Odds Comparison for Every Game. Compare sportsbook odds side by side for NFL, college football, NHL, soccer and more. See the best price, opening vs current lines and how the market moved.
Questions
How many sportsbooks should I compare?
As many as you can legally use. Even three or four books regularly turn up a better price on the same bet.
What is the best way to compare odds quickly?
Use an odds comparison tool that lists every book’s price for the same market side by side. Livdy Board does this for every league it covers.
Is a half point really worth paying extra for?
Around the NFL’s key numbers (3 and 7) it usually is, because so many games land exactly on them. Away from key numbers, half a point matters much less.