How to measure CLV
Compare your price with the closing price on the same bet. If you took a team at +3 and it closed +1.5, you beat the close by 1.5 points. If you took -110 and it closed -130, you beat it on price.
The cleanest measure is in implied probability: convert both prices, remove the vig from the closing price, and take the difference. Positive CLV means you got a better price than the market’s final, fairest estimate.
Why CLV beats win-loss record
Results are noisy: a 55% bettor can easily lose over 100 bets. CLV shows up on every bet, win or lose, so it tells you much sooner whether you are finding good prices.
The flip side: a winning record built on bets that consistently lose to the closing line is usually luck that will run out.
How Livdy uses it
Livdy grades its own picks against the closing line as well as the result, and keeps the record. We hold our own numbers to the same test we suggest you use.
Put it into practice: Sportsbook Odds Comparison for Every Game. Compare sportsbook odds side by side for NFL, college football, NHL, soccer and more. See the best price, opening vs current lines and how the market moved.
Questions
What is a good CLV?
Consistently positive CLV over hundreds of bets is the goal. Beating the close by even 1 to 2 percentage points on average is strong.
Can you have positive CLV and still lose?
Yes, over short stretches. CLV measures price quality; results include luck. Over a large sample, positive CLV and profit tend to go together.