From odds to touchdown probability
A running back at -150 to score implies a 60% chance; a receiver at +200 implies 33%. Those numbers include the book’s margin, so the true chance the market sees is a little lower. Comparing the price across books, and against the median price, shows which book is generous.
What drives touchdowns
- Red-zone and goal-line work: carries inside the 10 and red-zone targets matter far more than total yards.
- Team scoring: a team with a high implied team total (from the spread and total) scores more touchdowns to share.
- The defense: red-zone touchdowns allowed per game.
- Who is out: an injured teammate shifts goal-line work.
First touchdown scorer
The first-TD price is roughly the player’s chance to score at all, times his share of his team’s touchdowns, times his team’s chance to score first. Because the margins on first-TD markets are large, comparing every book’s price matters even more than on anytime bets.
Livdy’s TD Tracker and First TD board show each player’s touchdown history, every book’s price and a fair price for each player.
Put it into practice: NFL Betting Analytics and Matchup Trends. NFL betting analytics with every sportsbook’s lines, defense rankings, matchup trends, TD scorer odds and player prop hit rates for every game this week.
Questions
Does a quarterback rushing touchdown count for anytime TD?
Yes, a rushing or receiving touchdown counts. Passing touchdowns do not count for the quarterback who throws them.
What happens to my anytime TD bet if the player does not play?
Most books void the bet if the player takes no snaps, but rules vary by book, so check yours.