College Football Week 10 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
17 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 10, 6 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is WAKE -47.5 (MRMK at WAKE). The highest total is 68.5 in BOIS at CSU. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #1 MIA @ #4 ND
- #2 UGA @ #12 MISS
- #7 BYU @ #3 UTAH
- #8 UK @ #16 TENN
- #9 ALA @ #15 LSU
- #10 TEX @ #19 MIZ
- #5 UCLA @ MINN
- ORE @ #11 OSU
- WVU @ #13 TTU
- MRMK @ #14 WAKE
- CIN @ #17 HOU
- #20 BOIS @ CSU
- #21 IOWA @ NU
- #22 UNM @ NEV
- TA&M @ #23 SC
- TCU @ #24 ARIZ
- OU @ #25 FLA
#1 Miami Hurricanes at #4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
MIA offense vs ND defense Favors defense
- ND allows 45% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
- ND allows 41% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
Projected: 26.1 points, 235 passing and 120 rushing yards. ND allows 13.4 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
ND offense vs MIA defense Even
- MIA allows 58% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
- MIA allows 27% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
Projected: 29.4 points, 303 passing and 78 rushing yards. MIA allows 17.8 points per game (#21 in the FBS).
#2 Georgia Bulldogs at #12 Ole Miss Rebels
UGA offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows third-down conversions 11% more often than an average FBS defense (good for UGA).
- MISS allows 10% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for UGA).
Projected: 40.4 points, 277 passing and 206 rushing yards. MISS allows 24.0 points per game (#63 in the FBS).
MISS offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 40% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
- UGA allows 39% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
Projected: 22.6 points, 247 passing and 95 rushing yards. UGA allows 14.9 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
#7 BYU Cougars at #3 Utah Utes
BYU offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 35% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
- UTAH allows 30% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
Projected: 21.1 points, 239 passing and 123 rushing yards. UTAH allows 15.9 points per game (#15 in the FBS).
UTAH offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 31% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
- BYU allows 23% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
Projected: 29.9 points, 241 passing and 157 rushing yards. BYU allows 18.8 points per game (#25 in the FBS).
#8 Kentucky Wildcats at #16 Tennessee Volunteers
UK offense vs TENN defense Favors defense
- TENN allows 33% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
- TENN allows 22% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
Projected: 21.9 points, 171 passing and 142 rushing yards. TENN allows 16.3 points per game (#17 in the FBS).
TENN offense vs UK defense Even
- UK allows third-down conversions 27% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TENN).
- UK allows 22% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
Projected: 32.7 points, 212 passing and 167 rushing yards. UK allows 24.8 points per game (#70 in the FBS).
#9 Alabama Crimson Tide at #15 LSU Tigers
ALA offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 41% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
- LSU allows 34% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
Projected: 25.1 points, 211 passing and 90 rushing yards. LSU allows 16.0 points per game (#16 in the FBS).
LSU offense vs ALA defense Favors defense
- ALA allows 25% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for LSU).
- ALA allows 13% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for LSU).
Projected: 35.0 points, 332 passing and 144 rushing yards. ALA allows 21.3 points per game (#45 in the FBS).
#10 Texas Longhorns at #19 Missouri Tigers
TEX offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows 32% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TEX).
- MIZ allows 25% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TEX).
Projected: 23.2 points, 238 passing and 92 rushing yards. MIZ allows 18.4 points per game (#23 in the FBS).
MIZ offense vs TEX defense Favors defense
- TEX allows 30% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
- TEX allows 29% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
Projected: 22.1 points, 206 passing and 119 rushing yards. TEX allows 17.1 points per game (#19 in the FBS).
#5 UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden Gophers
UCLA offense vs MINN defense Favors defense
- MINN allows third-down conversions 27% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
- MINN allows 16% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
Projected: 28.2 points, 175 passing and 192 rushing yards. MINN allows 20.5 points per game (#35 in the FBS).
MINN offense vs UCLA defense Favors defense
- UCLA allows 45% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MINN).
- UCLA allows 40% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MINN).
Projected: 13.9 points, 171 passing and 60 rushing yards. UCLA allows 13.4 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
Oregon Ducks at #11 Ohio State Buckeyes
ORE offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 36% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
- OSU allows 34% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
Projected: 21.1 points, 238 passing and 93 rushing yards. OSU allows 15.5 points per game (#13 in the FBS).
OSU offense vs ORE defense Favors defense
- ORE allows third-down conversions 18% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
- ORE allows 12% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
Projected: 32.1 points, 308 passing and 148 rushing yards. ORE allows 21.4 points per game (#47 in the FBS).
West Virginia Mountaineers at #13 Texas Tech Red Raiders
WVU offense vs TTU defense Even
- TTU allows 34% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WVU).
- TTU allows 34% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for WVU).
Projected: 31.1 points, 276 passing and 172 rushing yards. TTU allows 21.1 points per game (#42 in the FBS).
TTU offense vs WVU defense Favors offense
- WVU allows 49% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TTU).
- WVU allows 38% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for TTU).
Projected: 47.1 points, 326 passing and 238 rushing yards. WVU allows 32.3 points per game (#126 in the FBS).
Merrimack Warriors at #14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
MRMK offense vs WAKE defense Favors defense
- WAKE allows 43% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MRMK).
- WAKE allows 27% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MRMK).
Projected: 13.2 points, 202 passing and 93 rushing yards. WAKE allows 17.9 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
WAKE offense vs MRMK defense Even
- MRMK allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WAKE).
- MRMK allows 13% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for WAKE).
Projected: 43.5 points, 319 passing and 130 rushing yards. MRMK allows 27.1 points per game.
Cincinnati Bearcats at #17 Houston Cougars
CIN offense vs HOU defense Even
- HOU allows 30% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CIN).
- HOU allows 21% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for CIN).
Projected: 29.4 points, 273 passing and 160 rushing yards. HOU allows 21.0 points per game (#40 in the FBS).
HOU offense vs CIN defense Favors offense
- CIN allows 32% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for HOU).
- CIN allows 20% more points than an average FBS defense (good for HOU).
Projected: 43.2 points, 354 passing and 226 rushing yards. CIN allows 29.3 points per game (#107 in the FBS).
#20 Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams
BOIS offense vs CSU defense Favors offense
- CSU allows 78% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
- CSU allows 74% more points than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
Projected: 62.3 points, 269 passing and 398 rushing yards. CSU allows 42.4 points per game (#138 in the FBS).
CSU offense vs BOIS defense Even
- BOIS allows 31% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CSU).
- BOIS allows 22% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for CSU).
Projected: 34.4 points, 332 passing and 113 rushing yards. BOIS allows 23.6 points per game (#60 in the FBS).
#21 Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
IOWA offense vs NU defense Favors defense
- NU allows 23% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
- NU allows 9% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
Projected: 21.7 points, 223 passing and 177 rushing yards. NU allows 18.8 points per game (#25 in the FBS).
NU offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 49% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for NU).
- IOWA allows 45% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for NU).
Projected: 17.2 points, 219 passing and 110 rushing yards. IOWA allows 12.5 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
#22 New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack
UNM offense vs NEV defense Favors defense
- NEV allows 27% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UNM).
- NEV allows third-down conversions 20% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UNM).
Projected: 32.5 points, 108 passing and 239 rushing yards. NEV allows 22.6 points per game (#55 in the FBS).
NEV offense vs UNM defense Favors defense
- UNM allows 51% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for NEV).
- UNM allows 43% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for NEV).
Projected: 11.2 points, 140 passing and 94 rushing yards. UNM allows 11.9 points per game (#1 in the FBS).
Texas A&M Aggies at #23 South Carolina Gamecocks
TA&M offense vs SC defense Even
- SC allows 20% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
Projected: 29.3 points, 202 passing and 124 rushing yards. SC allows 25.3 points per game (#74 in the FBS).
SC offense vs TA&M defense Favors defense
- TA&M allows 23% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for SC).
- TA&M allows third-down conversions 18% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for SC).
Projected: 28.5 points, 211 passing and 201 rushing yards. TA&M allows 18.9 points per game (#27 in the FBS).
TCU Horned Frogs at #24 Arizona Wildcats
TCU offense vs ARIZ defense Favors defense
- ARIZ allows 23% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TCU).
- ARIZ allows 10% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for TCU).
Projected: 18.0 points, 259 passing and 107 rushing yards. ARIZ allows 18.9 points per game (#27 in the FBS).
ARIZ offense vs TCU defense Favors defense
- TCU allows 42% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ARIZ).
- TCU allows 22% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ARIZ).
Projected: 20.2 points, 266 passing and 103 rushing yards. TCU allows 14.1 points per game (#8 in the FBS).
Oklahoma Sooners at #25 Florida Gators
OU offense vs FLA defense Favors offense
- FLA allows 15% more points than an average FBS defense (good for OU).
- FLA allows third-down conversions 15% more often than an average FBS defense (good for OU).
Projected: 25.4 points, 255 passing and 98 rushing yards. FLA allows 28.1 points per game (#103 in the FBS).
FLA offense vs OU defense Favors defense
- OU allows third-down conversions 26% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
- OU allows 18% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
Projected: 30.3 points, 205 passing and 158 rushing yards. OU allows 20.8 points per game (#38 in the FBS).
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 10. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 10 plus any Week 10 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
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