College Football Week 9 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
18 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 9, 2 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is ND -31 (ND vs NAVY). The highest total is 63.5 in TXST at BOIS. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #17 FLA vs #3 UGA
- #22 ARIZ @ #13 TTU
- #1 MIA @ UNC
- #2 OSU @ USC
- MINN @ #4 IU
- #5 ND vs NAVY
- #6 UTAH @ CIN
- NEV @ #7 UCLA
- ASU @ #8 BYU
- MSST @ #11 TEX
- AUB @ #12 MISS
- UVA @ #14 WAKE
- #19 SMU @ SYR
- #20 NU @ ORE
- TXST @ #20 BOIS
- #23 MIZ @ ARK
- #24 OKST @ ISU
- #25 WIS @ IOWA
#17 Florida Gators vs #3 Georgia Bulldogs
FLA offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 37% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
- UGA allows 35% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
Projected: 25.9 points, 224 passing and 123 rushing yards. UGA allows 15.9 points per game (#16 in the FBS).
UGA offense vs FLA defense Favors offense
- FLA allows 20% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for UGA).
- FLA allows third-down conversions 17% more often than an average FBS defense (good for UGA).
Projected: 50.1 points, 327 passing and 166 rushing yards. FLA allows 28.3 points per game (#106 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jadan Baugh (FLA, RB) -160
- Dwight Phillips Jr. (UGA, RB) -155
- Nate Frazier (UGA, RB) -150
#22 Arizona Wildcats at #13 Texas Tech Red Raiders
ARIZ offense vs TTU defense Even
- TTU allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ARIZ).
- TTU allows 25% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for ARIZ).
Projected: 30.4 points, 390 passing and 110 rushing yards. TTU allows 20.4 points per game (#36 in the FBS).
TTU offense vs ARIZ defense Favors defense
- ARIZ allows 31% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
- ARIZ allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
Projected: 24.7 points, 224 passing and 141 rushing yards. ARIZ allows 16.7 points per game (#23 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- J'Koby Williams (TTU, RB) -110
- Cameron Dickey (TTU, RB) -110
- Kedrick Reescano (ARIZ, RB) +105
#1 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels
MIA offense vs UNC defense Even
- UNC allows 14% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
- UNC allows third-down conversions 14% more often than an average FBS defense (good for MIA).
Projected: 42.1 points, 350 passing and 227 rushing yards. UNC allows 20.9 points per game (#40 in the FBS).
UNC offense vs MIA defense Favors defense
- MIA allows 58% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UNC).
- MIA allows 37% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UNC).
Projected: 15.4 points, 250 passing and 47 rushing yards. MIA allows 15.3 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Malachi Toney (MIA, WR) -210
- Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA, RB) -175
- Javian Mallory (MIA, RB) -115
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans
OSU offense vs USC defense Even
- USC allows 20% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
- USC allows 14% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for OSU).
Projected: 40.5 points, 329 passing and 122 rushing yards. USC allows 25.0 points per game (#77 in the FBS).
USC offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 45% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
- OSU allows 36% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
Projected: 18.1 points, 245 passing and 85 rushing yards. OSU allows 13.4 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Bo Jackson (OSU, RB) -210
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU, WR) -150
- King Miller (USC, RB) +100
Minnesota Golden Gophers at #4 Indiana Hoosiers
MINN offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 51% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MINN).
- IU allows 49% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MINN).
Projected: 13.1 points, 200 passing and 51 rushing yards. IU allows 12.0 points per game (#2 in the FBS).
IU offense vs MINN defense Favors defense
- MINN allows 22% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
- MINN allows third-down conversions 21% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
Projected: 27.9 points, 177 passing and 164 rushing yards. MINN allows 20.1 points per game (#34 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) -140
- Khobie Martin (IU, RB) -135
- Charlie Becker (IU, WR) -115
#6 Utah Utes at Cincinnati Bearcats
UTAH offense vs CIN defense Favors offense
- CIN allows 34% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for UTAH).
- CIN allows third-down conversions 10% more often than an average FBS defense (good for UTAH).
Projected: 40.8 points, 345 passing and 223 rushing yards. CIN allows 26.4 points per game (#95 in the FBS).
CIN offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 40% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for CIN).
- UTAH allows 39% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CIN).
Projected: 21.3 points, 233 passing and 144 rushing yards. UTAH allows 14.6 points per game (#9 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH, RB) -270
- Cole Tabb (CIN, RB) -135
- Devon Dampier (UTAH, QB) -115
Nevada Wolf Pack at #7 UCLA Bruins
NEV offense vs UCLA defense Favors defense
- UCLA allows 37% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for NEV).
- UCLA allows 37% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for NEV).
Projected: 16.6 points, 152 passing and 114 rushing yards. UCLA allows 15.3 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
UCLA offense vs NEV defense Favors defense
- NEV allows 28% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
- NEV allows third-down conversions 23% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
Projected: 31.2 points, 153 passing and 271 rushing yards. NEV allows 22.0 points per game (#53 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayne Knight (UCLA, RB) -390
- Anthony Woods (UCLA, RB) -155
- Jaivian Thomas (UCLA, RB) +115
Arizona State Sun Devils at #8 BYU Cougars
ASU offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 32% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ASU).
- BYU allows 23% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ASU).
Projected: 23.6 points, 256 passing and 98 rushing yards. BYU allows 18.6 points per game (#26 in the FBS).
BYU offense vs ASU defense Even
- ASU allows 23% more points than an average FBS defense (good for BYU).
- ASU allows 14% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
Projected: 40.8 points, 221 passing and 197 rushing yards. ASU allows 29.9 points per game (#110 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU, QB) -180
- Legend Glasker (BYU, WR) +110
- Preston Rex (BYU, RB) +115
Mississippi State Bulldogs at #11 Texas Longhorns
MSST offense vs TEX defense Favors defense
- TEX allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
- TEX allows 23% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
Projected: 23.7 points, 222 passing and 130 rushing yards. TEX allows 19.1 points per game (#29 in the FBS).
TEX offense vs MSST defense Even
- MSST allows 26% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
- MSST allows 14% more points than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
Projected: 35.1 points, 282 passing and 126 rushing yards. MSST allows 27.7 points per game (#102 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Raleek Brown (TEX, RB) -185
- Hollywood Smothers (TEX, RB) -155
- Arch Manning (TEX, QB) -110
Auburn Tigers at #12 Ole Miss Rebels
AUB offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows 12% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for AUB).
- MISS allows 10% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for AUB).
Projected: 26.5 points, 232 passing and 185 rushing yards. MISS allows 25.3 points per game (#79 in the FBS).
MISS offense vs AUB defense Even
- AUB allows 18% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MISS).
Projected: 35.8 points, 336 passing and 150 rushing yards. AUB allows 24.1 points per game (#69 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Trinidad Chambliss (MISS, QB) -175
- Makhi Frazier (MISS, RB) -165
- Byrum Brown (AUB, QB) -140
Virginia Cavaliers at #14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
UVA offense vs WAKE defense Even
- WAKE allows 36% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UVA).
- WAKE allows 20% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UVA).
Projected: 22.6 points, 217 passing and 104 rushing yards. WAKE allows 19.4 points per game (#30 in the FBS).
WAKE offense vs UVA defense Favors defense
- UVA allows 19% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WAKE).
- UVA allows 13% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WAKE).
Projected: 30.3 points, 252 passing and 154 rushing yards. UVA allows 19.6 points per game (#32 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Gio Lopez (WAKE, QB) -105
- Carlos Hernandez (WAKE, WR) +100
- Ty Clark III (WAKE, RB) +110
#19 SMU Mustangs at Syracuse Orange
SMU offense vs SYR defense Even
- SYR allows 8% more points than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
Projected: 39.5 points, 302 passing and 147 rushing yards. SYR allows 26.3 points per game (#93 in the FBS).
SYR offense vs SMU defense Favors defense
- SMU allows third-down conversions 28% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for SYR).
- SMU allows 16% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for SYR).
Projected: 27.5 points, 241 passing and 142 rushing yards. SMU allows 21.1 points per game (#47 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kendrick Raphael (SMU, RB) -330
- Umari Hatcher (SYR, WR) -115
- Ahmad Miller (SYR, RB) -111
#20 Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks
NU offense vs ORE defense Favors defense
- ORE allows third-down conversions 21% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for NU).
- ORE allows 15% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for NU).
Projected: 29.6 points, 215 passing and 182 rushing yards. ORE allows 20.7 points per game (#39 in the FBS).
ORE offense vs NU defense Favors defense
- NU allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
- NU allows 16% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
Projected: 22.6 points, 277 passing and 154 rushing yards. NU allows 16.6 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dierre Hill Jr. (ORE, RB) -118
- Jordon Davison (ORE, RB) +100
- Caleb Komolafe (NU, RB) +135
Texas State Bobcats at #20 Boise State Broncos
TXST offense vs BOIS defense Even
- BOIS allows 31% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TXST).
- BOIS allows third-down conversions 23% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TXST).
Projected: 31.5 points, 291 passing and 187 rushing yards. BOIS allows 20.6 points per game (#38 in the FBS).
BOIS offense vs TXST defense Even
- TXST allows 35% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
- TXST allows 24% more points than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
Projected: 42.6 points, 278 passing and 197 rushing yards. TXST allows 30.0 points per game (#111 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dylan Riley (BOIS, RB) -650
- Sire Gaines (BOIS, RB) -230
- Torrance Burgess Jr. (TXST, RB) -145
#23 Missouri Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
MIZ offense vs ARK defense Favors offense
- ARK allows 15% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for MIZ).
- ARK allows third-down conversions 13% more often than an average FBS defense (good for MIZ).
Projected: 34.3 points, 269 passing and 163 rushing yards. ARK allows 26.7 points per game (#96 in the FBS).
ARK offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows 28% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ARK).
- MIZ allows 19% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ARK).
Projected: 16.9 points, 247 passing and 81 rushing yards. MIZ allows 19.6 points per game (#31 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jamal Roberts (MIZ, RB) -240
- Cayden Lee (MIZ, WR) +110
- Donovan Olugbode (MIZ, WR) +130
#24 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones
OKST offense vs ISU defense Even
- ISU allows 13% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for OKST).
- ISU allows third-down conversions 9% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for OKST).
Projected: 39.8 points, 350 passing and 199 rushing yards. ISU allows 24.1 points per game (#69 in the FBS).
ISU offense vs OKST defense Even
- OKST allows 9% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for ISU).
Projected: 25.3 points, 189 passing and 156 rushing yards. OKST allows 23.7 points per game (#64 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Caleb Hawkins (OKST, RB) -295
- Aiden Flora (ISU, RB) -180
- Justin Bowick (OKST, WR) -120
#25 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes
WIS offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 42% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
- IOWA allows 41% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
Projected: 15.9 points, 168 passing and 87 rushing yards. IOWA allows 14.3 points per game (#8 in the FBS).
IOWA offense vs WIS defense Favors defense
- WIS allows 37% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
- WIS allows 33% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
Projected: 17.6 points, 179 passing and 120 rushing yards. WIS allows 15.3 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Colton Joseph (WIS, QB) +155
- L.J. Phillips Jr. (IOWA, RB) +185
- Abu Sama III (WIS, RB) +200
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 9. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 9 plus any Week 9 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
Real data. Clearer decisions.
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