College Football Week 8 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
17 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 8, 2 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is MIA -20.5 (PITT at MIA). The highest total is 58.5 in RUTG at NU. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #7 MISS @ #19 TEX
- #14 HOU @ #10 UTAH
- PITT @ #1 MIA
- #2 BYU @ UCF
- #6 IU @ MICH
- #8 TTU @ CIN
- MSU @ #9 UCLA
- #11 TENN @ SC
- VAN @ #12 UK
- TA&M @ #13 ALA
- #15 IOWA @ MINN
- #16 USC @ WIS
- #18 LSU @ AUB
- #21 BOIS @ WSU
- CAL @ #23 SMU
- RUTG @ #24 NU
- ISU @ #25 ARIZ
#7 Ole Miss Rebels at #19 Texas Longhorns
MISS offense vs TEX defense Favors defense
- TEX allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
- TEX allows 25% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
Projected: 28.0 points, 229 passing and 114 rushing yards. TEX allows 17.8 points per game (#29 in the FBS).
TEX offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows third-down conversions 16% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
- MISS allows 12% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
Projected: 30.1 points, 253 passing and 145 rushing yards. MISS allows 23.8 points per game (#72 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Raleek Brown (TEX, RB) -155
- Kewan Lacy (MISS, RB) -110
- Cam Coleman (TEX, WR) +115
#14 Houston Cougars at #10 Utah Utes
HOU offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 38% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
- UTAH allows 38% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
Projected: 24.4 points, 269 passing and 136 rushing yards. UTAH allows 14.8 points per game (#12 in the FBS).
UTAH offense vs HOU defense Even
- HOU allows 42% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
- HOU allows 25% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for UTAH).
Projected: 35.3 points, 334 passing and 127 rushing yards. HOU allows 21.0 points per game (#45 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH, RB) -320
- Braden Pegan (UTAH, WR) -120
- Devon Dampier (UTAH, QB) -110
Pittsburgh Panthers at #1 Miami Hurricanes
PITT offense vs MIA defense Favors defense
- MIA allows 59% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for PITT).
- MIA allows 41% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for PITT).
Projected: 19.3 points, 301 passing and 68 rushing yards. MIA allows 14.0 points per game (#7 in the FBS).
MIA offense vs PITT defense Even
- PITT allows 60% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
- PITT allows 31% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
Projected: 33.4 points, 392 passing and 90 rushing yards. PITT allows 16.4 points per game (#23 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Malachi Toney (MIA, WR) -195
- Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA, RB) -190
- Javian Mallory (MIA, RB) -125
#2 BYU Cougars at UCF Knights
BYU offense vs UCF defense Even
- UCF allows 17% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
- UCF allows 12% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for BYU).
Projected: 30.4 points, 240 passing and 171 rushing yards. UCF allows 21.7 points per game (#50 in the FBS).
UCF offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 40% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCF).
- BYU allows 36% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UCF).
Projected: 20.1 points, 172 passing and 97 rushing yards. BYU allows 15.2 points per game (#14 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU, QB) -170
- Duke Watson (UCF, RB) +105
- Preston Rex (BYU, RB) +105
#6 Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines
IU offense vs MICH defense Favors defense
- MICH allows 37% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
- MICH allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
Projected: 24.8 points, 197 passing and 125 rushing yards. MICH allows 16.2 points per game (#21 in the FBS).
MICH offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 47% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MICH).
- IU allows 46% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MICH).
Projected: 12.2 points, 153 passing and 78 rushing yards. IU allows 12.9 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Charlie Becker (IU, WR) -105
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) +105
- Nick Marsh (IU, WR) +110
#8 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Cincinnati Bearcats
TTU offense vs CIN defense Favors offense
- CIN allows 39% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TTU).
- CIN allows third-down conversions 21% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TTU).
Projected: 42.5 points, 320 passing and 189 rushing yards. CIN allows 26.8 points per game (#97 in the FBS).
CIN offense vs TTU defense Even
- TTU allows 43% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CIN).
- TTU allows 33% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for CIN).
Projected: 26.0 points, 305 passing and 132 rushing yards. TTU allows 17.7 points per game (#28 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- J'Koby Williams (TTU, RB) -350
- Cole Tabb (CIN, RB) -130
- Quinten Joyner (TTU, RB) +100
Michigan State Spartans at #9 UCLA Bruins
MSU offense vs UCLA defense Favors defense
- UCLA allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MSU).
- UCLA allows 32% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MSU).
Projected: 14.4 points, 177 passing and 81 rushing yards. UCLA allows 16.2 points per game (#21 in the FBS).
UCLA offense vs MSU defense Favors offense
- MSU allows third-down conversions 11% more often than an average FBS defense (good for UCLA).
- MSU allows 9% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for UCLA).
Projected: 37.8 points, 205 passing and 227 rushing yards. MSU allows 25.4 points per game (#82 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayne Knight (UCLA, RB) -300
- Anthony Woods (UCLA, RB) -110
- Jaivian Thomas (UCLA, RB) +115
#11 Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks
TENN offense vs SC defense Even
- SC allows 28% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
- SC allows 12% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TENN).
Projected: 35.7 points, 211 passing and 157 rushing yards. SC allows 25.5 points per game (#83 in the FBS).
SC offense vs TENN defense Favors defense
- TENN allows 38% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for SC).
- TENN allows 25% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for SC).
Projected: 23.2 points, 183 passing and 197 rushing yards. TENN allows 14.7 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- DeSean Bishop (TENN, RB) -270
- Matt Fuller (SC, RB) -130
- LaNorris Sellers (SC, QB) +110
Vanderbilt Commodores at #12 Kentucky Wildcats
VAN offense vs UK defense Favors offense
- UK allows third-down conversions 25% more often than an average FBS defense (good for VAN).
- UK allows 18% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for VAN).
Projected: 25.5 points, 278 passing and 106 rushing yards. UK allows 25.9 points per game (#92 in the FBS).
UK offense vs VAN defense Favors offense
- VAN allows 24% more points than an average FBS defense (good for UK).
- VAN allows third-down conversions 8% more often than an average FBS defense (good for UK).
Projected: 40.7 points, 230 passing and 169 rushing yards. VAN allows 29.7 points per game (#115 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- CJ Baxter (UK, RB) -200
- Junior Sherrill (VAN, WR) +125
- Willie Rodriguez (UK, TE) +130
Texas A&M Aggies at #13 Alabama Crimson Tide
TA&M offense vs ALA defense Even
- ALA allows 25% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
- ALA allows third-down conversions 13% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
Projected: 26.4 points, 214 passing and 120 rushing yards. ALA allows 21.4 points per game (#48 in the FBS).
ALA offense vs TA&M defense Favors defense
- TA&M allows 28% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
- TA&M allows 22% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
Projected: 28.2 points, 196 passing and 163 rushing yards. TA&M allows 17.1 points per game (#27 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Trae'shawn Brown (ALA, RB) -135
- Keelon Russell (ALA, QB) -125
- Daniel Hill (ALA, RB) -120
#15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers
IOWA offense vs MINN defense Favors defense
- MINN allows 24% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
- MINN allows third-down conversions 18% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
Projected: 28.4 points, 158 passing and 175 rushing yards. MINN allows 21.8 points per game (#54 in the FBS).
MINN offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 41% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MINN).
- IOWA allows 39% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MINN).
Projected: 17.5 points, 234 passing and 62 rushing yards. IOWA allows 14.5 points per game (#8 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kamari Moulton (IOWA, RB) -250
- Darius Taylor (MINN, RB) +125
- Tony Diaz (IOWA, WR) +200
#16 USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers
USC offense vs WIS defense Favors defense
- WIS allows 30% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
- WIS allows 19% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
Projected: 25.4 points, 251 passing and 123 rushing yards. WIS allows 16.7 points per game (#24 in the FBS).
WIS offense vs USC defense Even
- USC allows 23% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
- USC allows 18% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for WIS).
Projected: 29.0 points, 226 passing and 118 rushing yards. USC allows 25.1 points per game (#80 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- King Miller (USC, RB) -135
- Colton Joseph (WIS, QB) -120
- Abu Sama III (WIS, RB) +140
#18 LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers
LSU offense vs AUB defense Favors defense
- AUB allows third-down conversions 9% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for LSU).
- AUB allows 9% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for LSU).
Projected: 37.0 points, 332 passing and 196 rushing yards. AUB allows 21.8 points per game (#54 in the FBS).
AUB offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 39% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for AUB).
- LSU allows 34% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for AUB).
Projected: 17.8 points, 169 passing and 112 rushing yards. LSU allows 15.9 points per game (#17 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dilin Jones (LSU, RB) -200
- Sam Leavitt (LSU, QB) -120
- Byrum Brown (AUB, QB) -115
#21 Boise State Broncos at Washington State Cougars
BOIS offense vs WSU defense Favors offense
- WSU allows 14% more points than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
- WSU allows 11% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
Projected: 39.8 points, 229 passing and 261 rushing yards. WSU allows 27.1 points per game (#101 in the FBS).
WSU offense vs BOIS defense Even
- BOIS allows third-down conversions 27% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for WSU).
- BOIS allows 25% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WSU).
Projected: 18.8 points, 220 passing and 97 rushing yards. BOIS allows 22.3 points per game (#59 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dylan Riley (BOIS, RB) -450
- Sire Gaines (BOIS, RB) -120
- Rasean Jones (BOIS, WR) +155
California Golden Bears at #23 SMU Mustangs
CAL offense vs SMU defense Favors defense
- SMU allows third-down conversions 30% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for CAL).
- SMU allows 22% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CAL).
Projected: 21.3 points, 225 passing and 87 rushing yards. SMU allows 21.3 points per game (#47 in the FBS).
SMU offense vs CAL defense Favors offense
- CAL allows 26% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
- CAL allows 16% more points than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
Projected: 37.9 points, 323 passing and 179 rushing yards. CAL allows 27.7 points per game (#105 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kendrick Raphael (SMU, RB) -450
- Ashten Emory (CAL, RB) +110
- Kevin Jennings (SMU, QB) +125
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #24 Northwestern Wildcats
RUTG offense vs NU defense Even
- NU allows 29% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for RUTG).
- NU allows 13% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for RUTG).
Projected: 22.2 points, 290 passing and 132 rushing yards. NU allows 17.0 points per game (#26 in the FBS).
NU offense vs RUTG defense Favors offense
- RUTG allows 33% more points than an average FBS defense (good for NU).
- RUTG allows 29% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for NU).
Projected: 44.7 points, 240 passing and 247 rushing yards. RUTG allows 31.8 points per game (#119 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Aidan Chiles (NU, QB) -230
- Caleb Komolafe (NU, RB) -225
- KJ Duff (RUTG, WR) -145
Iowa State Cyclones at #25 Arizona Wildcats
ISU offense vs ARIZ defense Favors defense
- ARIZ allows 20% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ISU).
- ARIZ allows 19% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ISU).
Projected: 23.6 points, 181 passing and 147 rushing yards. ARIZ allows 19.0 points per game (#32 in the FBS).
ARIZ offense vs ISU defense Even
- ISU allows third-down conversions 16% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for ARIZ).
- ISU allows 9% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for ARIZ).
Projected: 32.4 points, 288 passing and 161 rushing yards. ISU allows 21.7 points per game (#50 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kedrick Reescano (ARIZ, RB) -160
- Aiden Flora (ISU, RB) -135
- Isaiah Mizell (ARIZ, WR) +105
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 8. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 8 plus any Week 8 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
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