College Football Week 7 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
16 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 7, 6 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is MIA -20.5 (FSU at MIA). The highest total is 62.5 in OKST at HOU. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #2 ND @ #8 BYU
- #4 OSU @ #5 IU
- #6 ALA @ #14 TENN
- #13 MIZ @ #9 MISS
- #16 MSST @ #22 LSU
- #18 OKST @ #20 HOU
- AUB @ #1 UGA
- FSU @ #3 MIA
- FLA @ #7 TEX
- ASU @ #10 TTU
- #11 UTAH @ COLO
- WIS @ #12 UCLA
- #15 UK @ OU
- #21 WAKE @ CAL
- UVA @ #24 SMU
- #25 NU @ MSU
#2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #8 BYU Cougars
ND offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 44% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
- BYU allows 43% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
Projected: 24.9 points, 217 passing and 111 rushing yards. BYU allows 13.4 points per game (#9 in the FBS).
BYU offense vs ND defense Favors defense
- ND allows 59% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
- ND allows 54% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
Projected: 16.0 points, 156 passing and 92 rushing yards. ND allows 11.0 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jonaz Walton (ND, RB) -105
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU, QB) +120
- Nolan James Jr. (ND, RB) +125
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at #5 Indiana Hoosiers
OSU offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 50% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
- IU allows 47% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
Projected: 21.3 points, 303 passing and 88 rushing yards. IU allows 11.8 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
IU offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 44% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
- OSU allows 32% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
Projected: 22.3 points, 173 passing and 150 rushing yards. OSU allows 13.2 points per game (#8 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU, WR) -195
- Bo Jackson (OSU, RB) -140
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) -115
#6 Alabama Crimson Tide at #14 Tennessee Volunteers
ALA offense vs TENN defense Favors defense
- TENN allows 35% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
- TENN allows 23% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
Projected: 28.9 points, 208 passing and 170 rushing yards. TENN allows 15.5 points per game (#19 in the FBS).
TENN offense vs ALA defense Even
- ALA allows 29% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
- ALA allows third-down conversions 15% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
Projected: 30.2 points, 210 passing and 161 rushing yards. ALA allows 20.7 points per game (#45 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- DeSean Bishop (TENN, RB) -160
- Trae'shawn Brown (ALA, RB) -105
- Keelon Russell (ALA, QB) -105
#13 Missouri Tigers at #9 Ole Miss Rebels
MIZ offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows 25% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MIZ).
- MISS allows third-down conversions 23% more often than an average FBS defense (good for MIZ).
Projected: 42.3 points, 264 passing and 227 rushing yards. MISS allows 28.0 points per game (#108 in the FBS).
MISS offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows 44% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
- MIZ allows 26% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
Projected: 28.9 points, 321 passing and 74 rushing yards. MIZ allows 17.7 points per game (#29 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jamal Roberts (MIZ, RB) -370
- Kewan Lacy (MISS, RB) -185
- Deuce Alexander (MISS, WR) -120
#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #22 LSU Tigers
MSST offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 47% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
- LSU allows third-down conversions 26% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
Projected: 30.4 points, 260 passing and 94 rushing yards. LSU allows 18.5 points per game (#32 in the FBS).
LSU offense vs MSST defense Even
- MSST allows 24% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
- MSST allows 18% more points than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
Projected: 49.6 points, 386 passing and 181 rushing yards. MSST allows 28.0 points per game (#108 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dilin Jones (LSU, RB) -270
- Sam Leavitt (LSU, QB) -220
- Kolin Wilson (MSST, RB) +100
#18 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #20 Houston Cougars
OKST offense vs HOU defense Even
- HOU allows 48% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OKST).
- HOU allows 19% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OKST).
Projected: 30.9 points, 382 passing and 104 rushing yards. HOU allows 19.2 points per game (#37 in the FBS).
HOU offense vs OKST defense Favors defense
- OKST allows third-down conversions 16% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
- OKST allows 14% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
Projected: 36.1 points, 216 passing and 242 rushing yards. OKST allows 21.4 points per game (#49 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Caleb Hawkins (OKST, RB) -235
- Conner Weigman (HOU, QB) -170
- Makhi Hughes (HOU, RB) -150
Auburn Tigers at #1 Georgia Bulldogs
AUB offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 47% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for AUB).
- UGA allows 41% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for AUB).
Projected: 15.8 points, 196 passing and 95 rushing yards. UGA allows 14.0 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
UGA offense vs AUB defense Favors defense
- AUB allows third-down conversions 14% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
- AUB allows 10% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
Projected: 41.6 points, 261 passing and 223 rushing yards. AUB allows 21.4 points per game (#49 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dwight Phillips Jr. (UGA, RB) -160
- Nate Frazier (UGA, RB) -120
- Byrum Brown (AUB, QB) +110
Florida State Seminoles at #3 Miami Hurricanes
FSU offense vs MIA defense Favors defense
- MIA allows 70% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FSU).
- MIA allows 59% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for FSU).
Projected: 12.8 points, 220 passing and 56 rushing yards. MIA allows 9.8 points per game (#1 in the FBS).
MIA offense vs FSU defense Favors offense
- FSU allows 17% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MIA).
- FSU allows 17% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MIA).
Projected: 53.0 points, 390 passing and 258 rushing yards. FSU allows 25.3 points per game (#83 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA, RB) -245
- Malachi Toney (MIA, WR) -225
- Cooper Barkate (MIA, WR) -120
Florida Gators at #7 Texas Longhorns
FLA offense vs TEX defense Favors defense
- TEX allows 33% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
- TEX allows 32% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
Projected: 28.1 points, 220 passing and 136 rushing yards. TEX allows 16.0 points per game (#21 in the FBS).
TEX offense vs FLA defense Favors offense
- FLA allows 28% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
- FLA allows third-down conversions 25% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TEX).
Projected: 38.4 points, 304 passing and 125 rushing yards. FLA allows 29.0 points per game (#113 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Hollywood Smothers (TEX, RB) -150
- Jadan Baugh (FLA, RB) -150
- Arch Manning (TEX, QB) +120
Arizona State Sun Devils at #10 Texas Tech Red Raiders
ASU offense vs TTU defense Favors defense
- TTU allows 35% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ASU).
- TTU allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ASU).
Projected: 22.3 points, 320 passing and 107 rushing yards. TTU allows 16.2 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
TTU offense vs ASU defense Even
- ASU allows 17% more points than an average FBS defense (good for TTU).
- ASU allows 15% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
Projected: 40.8 points, 229 passing and 172 rushing yards. ASU allows 27.8 points per game (#106 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- J'Koby Williams (TTU, RB) -320
- Quinten Joyner (TTU, RB) -110
- Reed Harris (ASU, WR) +135
#11 Utah Utes at Colorado Buffaloes
UTAH offense vs COLO defense Even
- No stat stands out: COLO is close to the FBS average on everything we track.
Projected: 45.8 points, 272 passing and 221 rushing yards. COLO allows 25.4 points per game (#84 in the FBS).
COLO offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 45% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for COLO).
- UTAH allows 44% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for COLO).
Projected: 10.2 points, 249 passing and 78 rushing yards. UTAH allows 13.0 points per game (#7 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH, RB) -290
- Devon Dampier (UTAH, QB) -120
- Braden Pegan (UTAH, WR) +115
Wisconsin Badgers at #12 UCLA Bruins
WIS offense vs UCLA defense Favors defense
- UCLA allows 38% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
- UCLA allows third-down conversions 30% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
Projected: 24.0 points, 238 passing and 95 rushing yards. UCLA allows 18.0 points per game (#30 in the FBS).
UCLA offense vs WIS defense Favors defense
- WIS allows 30% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
- WIS allows 27% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
Projected: 27.4 points, 149 passing and 205 rushing yards. WIS allows 16.6 points per game (#24 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayne Knight (UCLA, RB) -185
- Colton Joseph (WIS, QB) +120
- Abu Sama III (WIS, RB) +120
#15 Kentucky Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners
UK offense vs OU defense Favors defense
- OU allows third-down conversions 39% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
- OU allows 28% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
Projected: 25.7 points, 166 passing and 150 rushing yards. OU allows 17.6 points per game (#28 in the FBS).
OU offense vs UK defense Favors offense
- UK allows third-down conversions 26% more often than an average FBS defense (good for OU).
- UK allows 18% more points than an average FBS defense (good for OU).
Projected: 27.1 points, 245 passing and 92 rushing yards. UK allows 28.0 points per game (#108 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Lloyd Avant (OU, RB) -110
- Isaiah Sategna III (OU, WR) -105
- CJ Baxter (UK, RB) +105
#21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at California Golden Bears
WAKE offense vs CAL defense Even
- CAL allows 23% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for WAKE).
- CAL allows 8% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for WAKE).
Projected: 39.6 points, 268 passing and 179 rushing yards. CAL allows 25.5 points per game (#85 in the FBS).
CAL offense vs WAKE defense Even
- WAKE allows 33% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CAL).
- WAKE allows third-down conversions 16% more often than an average FBS defense (good for CAL).
Projected: 24.2 points, 344 passing and 63 rushing yards. WAKE allows 21.5 points per game (#51 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Gio Lopez (WAKE, QB) -210
- Ty Clark III (WAKE, RB) -140
- Deuce Lawrence (WAKE, RB) -111
Virginia Cavaliers at #24 SMU Mustangs
UVA offense vs SMU defense Favors defense
- SMU allows third-down conversions 31% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UVA).
- SMU allows 19% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UVA).
Projected: 31.8 points, 177 passing and 163 rushing yards. SMU allows 23.0 points per game (#65 in the FBS).
SMU offense vs UVA defense Favors defense
- UVA allows 23% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for SMU).
- UVA allows 19% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for SMU).
Projected: 28.0 points, 267 passing and 148 rushing yards. UVA allows 19.2 points per game (#37 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kendrick Raphael (SMU, RB) -300
- Jekail Middlebrook (UVA, RB) -105
- Yamir Knight (SMU, WR) +155
#25 Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans
NU offense vs MSU defense Favors offense
- MSU allows 9% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for NU).
- MSU allows 8% more points than an average FBS defense (good for NU).
Projected: 38.3 points, 221 passing and 203 rushing yards. MSU allows 25.7 points per game (#88 in the FBS).
MSU offense vs NU defense Even
- NU allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MSU).
- NU allows 14% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for MSU).
Projected: 14.6 points, 209 passing and 129 rushing yards. NU allows 16.2 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Caleb Komolafe (NU, RB) -155
- Jaziun Patterson (MSU, RB) -150
- Aidan Chiles (NU, QB) -135
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 7. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 7 plus any Week 7 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
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