College Football Week 6 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
19 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 6, 2 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is MISS -41.5 (MISS at VAN). The highest total is 68.5 in LSU at UK. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #2 UGA @ #6 ALA
- #21 UCLA @ #13 ORE
- #1 TEX vs OU
- STAN @ #3 ND
- MD @ #5 OSU
- #7 IU @ NEB
- ISU @ #8 BYU
- #9 MISS @ VAN
- #10 LSU @ UK
- KU @ #12 UTAH
- TA&M @ #14 MIZ
- #15 TENN @ ARK
- SC @ #16 FLA
- UCF @ #18 OKST
- #19 USC @ PSU
- #20 IOWA @ WASH
- #22 HOU @ KSU
- #23 BOIS @ FRES
- UNC @ #25 PITT
#2 Georgia Bulldogs at #6 Alabama Crimson Tide
UGA offense vs ALA defense Even
- ALA allows 43% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
- ALA allows third-down conversions 26% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
Projected: 45.7 points, 297 passing and 121 rushing yards. ALA allows 20.8 points per game (#51 in the FBS).
ALA offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 59% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
- UGA allows 43% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
Projected: 28.4 points, 257 passing and 77 rushing yards. UGA allows 13.4 points per game (#12 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Keelon Russell (ALA, QB) +100
- Nate Frazier (UGA, RB) +105
- Chauncey Bowens (UGA, RB) +105
#21 UCLA Bruins at #13 Oregon Ducks
UCLA offense vs ORE defense Even
- ORE allows third-down conversions 43% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
- ORE allows 19% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCLA).
Projected: 44.5 points, 227 passing and 229 rushing yards. ORE allows 23.3 points per game (#68 in the FBS).
ORE offense vs UCLA defense Favors defense
- UCLA allows 34% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
- UCLA allows third-down conversions 20% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
Projected: 38.1 points, 374 passing and 105 rushing yards. UCLA allows 18.8 points per game (#39 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jordon Davison (ORE, RB) -225
- Dierre Hill Jr. (ORE, RB) -185
- Wayne Knight (UCLA, RB) -150
#1 Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners
TEX offense vs OU defense Favors defense
- OU allows 41% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TEX).
- OU allows third-down conversions 38% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for TEX).
Projected: 22.7 points, 135 passing and 123 rushing yards. OU allows 16.0 points per game (#24 in the FBS).
OU offense vs TEX defense Favors defense
- TEX allows 43% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OU).
- TEX allows 28% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OU).
Projected: 12.5 points, 183 passing and 71 rushing yards. TEX allows 13.3 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Hollywood Smothers (TEX, RB) +120
- Raleek Brown (TEX, RB) +130
- Arch Manning (TEX, QB) +155
Stanford Cardinal at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
STAN offense vs ND defense Favors defense
- ND allows 58% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for STAN).
- ND allows 50% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for STAN).
Projected: 8.8 points, 187 passing and 37 rushing yards. ND allows 11.8 points per game (#7 in the FBS).
ND offense vs STAN defense Favors offense
- STAN allows 63% more points than an average FBS defense (good for ND).
- STAN allows 43% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for ND).
Projected: 67.3 points, 383 passing and 185 rushing yards. STAN allows 38.2 points per game (#133 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jordan Faison (ND, WR) -210
- Nolan James Jr. (ND, RB) -200
- Aneyas Williams (ND, RB) -175
Maryland Terrapins at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes
MD offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 46% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MD).
- OSU allows 29% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MD).
Projected: 16.4 points, 223 passing and 105 rushing yards. OSU allows 12.6 points per game (#8 in the FBS).
OSU offense vs MD defense Even
- MD allows 29% more points than an average FBS defense (good for OSU).
Projected: 54.5 points, 339 passing and 155 rushing yards. MD allows 30.2 points per game (#116 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU, WR) -655
- Ja'Kobi Jackson (OSU, RB) -175
- Bo Jackson (OSU, RB) -160
#7 Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers
IU offense vs NEB defense Favors defense
- NEB allows third-down conversions 43% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
- NEB allows 39% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
Projected: 26.8 points, 187 passing and 183 rushing yards. NEB allows 14.2 points per game (#15 in the FBS).
NEB offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 54% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for NEB).
- IU allows 54% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for NEB).
Projected: 20.1 points, 203 passing and 107 rushing yards. IU allows 10.8 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) -200
- Lee Beebe Jr. (IU, RB) -125
- Charlie Becker (IU, WR) -105
Iowa State Cyclones at #8 BYU Cougars
ISU offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 46% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ISU).
- BYU allows 39% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ISU).
Projected: 20.5 points, 179 passing and 107 rushing yards. BYU allows 14.3 points per game (#17 in the FBS).
BYU offense vs ISU defense Favors defense
- ISU allows third-down conversions 19% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
- ISU allows 18% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
Projected: 33.7 points, 148 passing and 253 rushing yards. ISU allows 21.2 points per game (#52 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU, QB) -155
- Preston Rex (BYU, RB) -105
- Aiden Flora (ISU, RB) +105
#9 Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores
MISS offense vs VAN defense Even
- No stat stands out: VAN is close to the FBS average on everything we track.
Projected: 37.9 points, 330 passing and 109 rushing yards. VAN allows 25.0 points per game (#80 in the FBS).
VAN offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows 40% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for VAN).
- MISS allows 31% more points than an average FBS defense (good for VAN).
Projected: 33.4 points, 227 passing and 173 rushing yards. MISS allows 30.8 points per game (#118 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kewan Lacy (MISS, RB) -265
- Deuce Alexander (MISS, WR) -110
- Sedrick Alexander (VAN, RB) -110
#10 LSU Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats
LSU offense vs UK defense Favors offense
- UK allows third-down conversions 23% more often than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
- UK allows 15% more points than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
Projected: 49.9 points, 345 passing and 247 rushing yards. UK allows 26.8 points per game (#101 in the FBS).
UK offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 58% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
- LSU allows 35% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
Projected: 22.5 points, 178 passing and 79 rushing yards. LSU allows 15.2 points per game (#20 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dilin Jones (LSU, RB) -240
- Sam Leavitt (LSU, QB) -180
- CJ Baxter (UK, RB) +105
Kansas Jayhawks at #12 Utah Utes
KU offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 56% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for KU).
- UTAH allows 39% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for KU).
Projected: 15.8 points, 203 passing and 154 rushing yards. UTAH allows 10.3 points per game (#3 in the FBS).
UTAH offense vs KU defense Favors defense
- KU allows third-down conversions 34% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
- KU allows 31% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
Projected: 31.4 points, 184 passing and 163 rushing yards. KU allows 17.0 points per game (#31 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH, RB) -320
- Dylan Edwards (KU, RB) +100
- Devon Dampier (UTAH, QB) +110
Texas A&M Aggies at #14 Missouri Tigers
TA&M offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows 36% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
- MIZ allows 15% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
Projected: 27.2 points, 209 passing and 107 rushing yards. MIZ allows 20.0 points per game (#48 in the FBS).
MIZ offense vs TA&M defense Favors defense
- TA&M allows third-down conversions 29% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
- TA&M allows 21% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
Projected: 29.9 points, 255 passing and 147 rushing yards. TA&M allows 18.6 points per game (#38 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jamal Roberts (MIZ, RB) -380
- Rueben Owens II (TA&M, RB) +105
- Cayden Lee (MIZ, WR) +135
#15 Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks
TENN offense vs ARK defense Favors offense
- ARK allows 21% more points than an average FBS defense (good for TENN).
- ARK allows third-down conversions 21% more often than an average FBS defense (good for TENN).
Projected: 44.7 points, 162 passing and 253 rushing yards. ARK allows 28.4 points per game (#108 in the FBS).
ARK offense vs TENN defense Favors defense
- TENN allows 35% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ARK).
- TENN allows 22% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ARK).
Projected: 12.9 points, 189 passing and 88 rushing yards. TENN allows 15.2 points per game (#20 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- DeSean Bishop (TENN, RB) -390
- Daune Morris (TENN, RB) +110
- Mike Matthews (TENN, WR) +120
South Carolina Gamecocks at #16 Florida Gators
SC offense vs FLA defense Favors offense
- FLA allows 28% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SC).
- FLA allows third-down conversions 16% more often than an average FBS defense (good for SC).
Projected: 43.7 points, 300 passing and 233 rushing yards. FLA allows 27.2 points per game (#104 in the FBS).
FLA offense vs SC defense Favors offense
- SC allows 28% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
- SC allows 15% more points than an average FBS defense (good for FLA).
Projected: 52.9 points, 304 passing and 157 rushing yards. SC allows 26.8 points per game (#101 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jadan Baugh (FLA, RB) -525
- Matt Fuller (SC, RB) -135
- LaNorris Sellers (SC, QB) -110
UCF Knights at #18 Oklahoma State Cowboys
UCF offense vs OKST defense Favors defense
- OKST allows third-down conversions 25% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UCF).
- OKST allows 24% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCF).
Projected: 27.3 points, 135 passing and 197 rushing yards. OKST allows 19.8 points per game (#44 in the FBS).
OKST offense vs UCF defense Favors defense
- UCF allows 25% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OKST).
- UCF allows 14% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OKST).
Projected: 28.0 points, 349 passing and 191 rushing yards. UCF allows 17.6 points per game (#32 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Caleb Hawkins (OKST, RB) -300
- Wyatt Young (OKST, WR) -105
- Duke Watson (UCF, RB) -105
#19 USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions
USC offense vs PSU defense Favors defense
- PSU allows 43% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
- PSU allows third-down conversions 37% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
Projected: 25.5 points, 178 passing and 195 rushing yards. PSU allows 16.0 points per game (#24 in the FBS).
PSU offense vs USC defense Favors offense
- USC allows 18% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for PSU).
- USC allows 15% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for PSU).
Projected: 34.9 points, 269 passing and 133 rushing yards. USC allows 25.5 points per game (#89 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- King Miller (USC, RB) -125
- James Peoples (PSU, RB) -120
- Carson Hansen (PSU, RB) +115
#20 Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies
IOWA offense vs WASH defense Favors defense
- WASH allows 21% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
- WASH allows 20% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
Projected: 22.8 points, 193 passing and 145 rushing yards. WASH allows 18.4 points per game (#37 in the FBS).
WASH offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 46% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WASH).
- IOWA allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for WASH).
Projected: 14.3 points, 242 passing and 80 rushing yards. IOWA allows 12.6 points per game (#8 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kamari Moulton (IOWA, RB) -110
- Brian Bonner Jr. (WASH, RB) +110
- Demond Williams Jr. (WASH, QB) +125
#22 Houston Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats
HOU offense vs KSU defense Favors defense
- KSU allows 49% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
- KSU allows 35% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
Projected: 26.7 points, 129 passing and 231 rushing yards. KSU allows 15.3 points per game (#22 in the FBS).
KSU offense vs HOU defense Favors defense
- HOU allows 53% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for KSU).
- HOU allows 25% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for KSU).
Projected: 34.3 points, 300 passing and 113 rushing yards. HOU allows 19.8 points per game (#46 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Joe Jackson (KSU, RB) -155
- Conner Weigman (HOU, QB) -130
- Rodney Fields Jr. (KSU, RB) -125
#23 Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs
BOIS offense vs FRES defense Favors defense
- FRES allows 30% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for BOIS).
- FRES allows third-down conversions 11% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for BOIS).
Projected: 24.1 points, 218 passing and 234 rushing yards. FRES allows 16.4 points per game (#27 in the FBS).
FRES offense vs BOIS defense Even
- BOIS allows third-down conversions 33% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for FRES).
- BOIS allows 26% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for FRES).
Projected: 24.5 points, 264 passing and 127 rushing yards. BOIS allows 20.6 points per game (#50 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dylan Riley (BOIS, RB) -450
- Bryson Donelson (FRES, RB) -110
- Sire Gaines (BOIS, RB) +100
North Carolina Tar Heels at #25 Pittsburgh Panthers
UNC offense vs PITT defense Favors defense
- PITT allows 60% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UNC).
- PITT allows 43% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UNC).
Projected: 13.7 points, 241 passing and 54 rushing yards. PITT allows 13.4 points per game (#12 in the FBS).
PITT offense vs UNC defense Even
- UNC allows 17% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for PITT).
- UNC allows third-down conversions 15% more often than an average FBS defense (good for PITT).
Projected: 32.0 points, 303 passing and 178 rushing yards. UNC allows 19.5 points per game (#43 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Ja'Kyrian Turner (PITT, RB) +105
- Damon Ferguson Jr. (PITT, RB) +145
- Jelani Thurman (UNC, TE) +145
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 6. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 6 plus any Week 6 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
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