College Football Week 5 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
16 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 5, 3 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is MIZ -34.5 (FLA at MIZ). The highest total is 82.5 in ALA at MSST. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #5 OSU @ #14 IOWA
- #7 ALA @ #16 MSST
- #8 FLA @ #25 MIZ
- VAN @ #2 UGA
- #3 ND @ UNC
- #4 MIA @ CLEM
- #6 IU @ RUTG
- #10 BYU @ TCU
- MCN @ #11 LSU
- #12 TTU @ COLO
- AUB @ #17 TENN
- WASH @ #18 USC
- UCF @ #20 HOU
- BC @ #21 SMU
- USU @ #22 BOIS
- #24 UK @ SC
#5 Ohio State Buckeyes at #14 Iowa Hawkeyes
OSU offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 65% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
- IOWA allows 35% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OSU).
Projected: 15.8 points, 268 passing and 102 rushing yards. IOWA allows 8.0 points per game (#1 in the FBS).
IOWA offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 46% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
- OSU allows 31% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
Projected: 17.6 points, 165 passing and 182 rushing yards. OSU allows 12.3 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU, WR) -255
- Bo Jackson (OSU, RB) -115
- Kamari Moulton (IOWA, RB) +135
#7 Alabama Crimson Tide at #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
ALA offense vs MSST defense Favors defense
- MSST allows 22% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
- MSST allows 20% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for ALA).
Projected: 44.1 points, 340 passing and 146 rushing yards. MSST allows 21.0 points per game (#53 in the FBS).
MSST offense vs ALA defense Favors defense
- ALA allows third-down conversions 37% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
- ALA allows 31% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
Projected: 38.1 points, 337 passing and 151 rushing yards. ALA allows 20.3 points per game (#47 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Daniel Hill (ALA, RB) -160
- Fluff Bothwell (MSST, RB) -150
- Keelon Russell (ALA, QB) -125
#8 Florida Gators at #25 Missouri Tigers
FLA offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows 26% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
- MIZ allows third-down conversions 13% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for FLA).
Projected: 48.6 points, 287 passing and 193 rushing yards. MIZ allows 20.8 points per game (#51 in the FBS).
MIZ offense vs FLA defense Even
- FLA allows 24% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
- FLA allows 20% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MIZ).
Projected: 35.6 points, 315 passing and 119 rushing yards. FLA allows 22.8 points per game (#69 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jadan Baugh (FLA, RB) -380
- Jamal Roberts (MIZ, RB) -220
- Vernell Brown III (FLA, WR) -115
Vanderbilt Commodores at #2 Georgia Bulldogs
VAN offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 63% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for VAN).
- UGA allows 42% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for VAN).
Projected: 16.4 points, 203 passing and 50 rushing yards. UGA allows 13.3 points per game (#18 in the FBS).
UGA offense vs VAN defense Favors defense
- VAN allows 14% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
- VAN allows third-down conversions 13% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
Projected: 52.1 points, 242 passing and 191 rushing yards. VAN allows 21.8 points per game (#60 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Nate Frazier (UGA, RB) -285
- Chauncey Bowens (UGA, RB) -275
- Gunner Stockton (UGA, QB) +100
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar Heels
ND offense vs UNC defense Favors defense
- UNC allows 40% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ND).
- UNC allows third-down conversions 20% more often than an average FBS defense (good for ND).
Projected: 25.3 points, 251 passing and 129 rushing yards. UNC allows 13.7 points per game (#20 in the FBS).
UNC offense vs ND defense Favors defense
- ND allows 64% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UNC).
- ND allows 60% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UNC).
Projected: 8.4 points, 148 passing and 62 rushing yards. ND allows 8.3 points per game (#2 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Aneyas Williams (ND, RB) -200
- Nolan James Jr. (ND, RB) -175
- Jordan Faison (ND, WR) +115
#4 Miami Hurricanes at Clemson Tigers
MIA offense vs CLEM defense Even
- CLEM allows 17% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MIA).
- CLEM allows 14% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
Projected: 49.8 points, 374 passing and 266 rushing yards. CLEM allows 22.0 points per game (#63 in the FBS).
CLEM offense vs MIA defense Favors defense
- MIA allows 71% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CLEM).
- MIA allows 61% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for CLEM).
Projected: 8.3 points, 139 passing and 46 rushing yards. MIA allows 9.0 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Malachi Toney (MIA, WR) -220
- Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA, RB) -190
- Gideon Davidson (CLEM, RB) +125
#6 Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
IU offense vs RUTG defense Favors offense
- RUTG allows 25% more points than an average FBS defense (good for IU).
- RUTG allows 24% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for IU).
Projected: 54.3 points, 216 passing and 288 rushing yards. RUTG allows 28.5 points per game (#107 in the FBS).
RUTG offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 57% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for RUTG).
- IU allows 51% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for RUTG).
Projected: 14.4 points, 225 passing and 75 rushing yards. IU allows 9.8 points per game (#5 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Charlie Becker (IU, WR) -245
- Lee Beebe Jr. (IU, RB) -240
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) -210
#10 BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs
BYU offense vs TCU defense Favors defense
- TCU allows 45% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
- TCU allows 36% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BYU).
Projected: 24.1 points, 189 passing and 167 rushing yards. TCU allows 12.5 points per game (#14 in the FBS).
TCU offense vs BYU defense Favors defense
- BYU allows 44% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TCU).
- BYU allows 31% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TCU).
Projected: 20.1 points, 285 passing and 78 rushing yards. BYU allows 15.7 points per game (#29 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- LJ Martin (BYU, RB) -285
- Jeremy Payne (TCU, RB) -140
- Bear Bachmeier (BYU, QB) +100
McNeese Cowboys at #11 LSU Tigers
MCN offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 65% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MCN).
- LSU allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MCN).
Projected: 19.0 points, 198 passing and 67 rushing yards. LSU allows 15.5 points per game (#27 in the FBS).
LSU offense vs MCN defense Favors offense
- MCN allows 28% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
- MCN allows 19% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for LSU).
Projected: 39.3 points, 354 passing and 262 rushing yards. MCN allows 23.2 points per game.
#12 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado Buffaloes
TTU offense vs COLO defense Even
- COLO allows 14% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TTU).
- COLO allows 12% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
Projected: 38.9 points, 285 passing and 158 rushing yards. COLO allows 24.5 points per game (#82 in the FBS).
COLO offense vs TTU defense Favors defense
- TTU allows 30% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for COLO).
- TTU allows 22% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for COLO).
Projected: 17.4 points, 296 passing and 110 rushing yards. TTU allows 18.5 points per game (#37 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- J'Koby Williams (TTU, RB) -165
- Cameron Dickey (TTU, RB) -140
- Kenny Johnson (TTU, WR) +105
Auburn Tigers at #17 Tennessee Volunteers
AUB offense vs TENN defense Favors defense
- TENN allows 32% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for AUB).
- TENN allows 21% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for AUB).
Projected: 20.4 points, 185 passing and 157 rushing yards. TENN allows 15.5 points per game (#27 in the FBS).
TENN offense vs AUB defense Even
- AUB allows 15% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for TENN).
- AUB allows 9% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
Projected: 36.3 points, 226 passing and 227 rushing yards. AUB allows 20.8 points per game (#51 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- DeSean Bishop (TENN, RB) -200
- Byrum Brown (AUB, QB) -115
- Jeremiah Cobb (AUB, RB) +100
Washington Huskies at #18 USC Trojans
WASH offense vs USC defense Favors offense
- USC allows 21% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for WASH).
- USC allows 16% more points than an average FBS defense (good for WASH).
Projected: 32.4 points, 329 passing and 94 rushing yards. USC allows 26.4 points per game (#99 in the FBS).
USC offense vs WASH defense Favors defense
- WASH allows 27% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
- WASH allows third-down conversions 22% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
Projected: 29.2 points, 280 passing and 135 rushing yards. WASH allows 16.8 points per game (#34 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- King Miller (USC, RB) -170
- Demond Williams Jr. (WASH, QB) +100
- Waymond Jordan (USC, RB) +140
UCF Knights at #20 Houston Cougars
UCF offense vs HOU defense Even
- HOU allows 53% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UCF).
- HOU allows 26% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for UCF).
Projected: 32.5 points, 200 passing and 93 rushing yards. HOU allows 20.5 points per game (#48 in the FBS).
HOU offense vs UCF defense Favors defense
- UCF allows 33% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
- UCF allows 17% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
Projected: 29.7 points, 273 passing and 205 rushing yards. UCF allows 15.3 points per game (#24 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Makhi Hughes (HOU, RB) -145
- Conner Weigman (HOU, QB) -110
- Amare Thomas (HOU, WR) +100
Boston College Eagles at #21 SMU Mustangs
BC offense vs SMU defense Even
- SMU allows third-down conversions 45% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for BC).
- SMU allows 22% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for BC).
Projected: 21.4 points, 147 passing and 179 rushing yards. SMU allows 24.8 points per game (#84 in the FBS).
SMU offense vs BC defense Even
- BC allows 30% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
- BC allows 20% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for SMU).
Projected: 37.2 points, 314 passing and 205 rushing yards. BC allows 23.0 points per game (#70 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kendrick Raphael (SMU, RB) -350
- Dramekco Green (SMU, RB) +110
- Yamir Knight (SMU, WR) +115
Utah State Aggies at #22 Boise State Broncos
USU offense vs BOIS defense Even
- BOIS allows third-down conversions 37% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for USU).
- BOIS allows 34% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for USU).
Projected: 12.1 points, 273 passing and 87 rushing yards. BOIS allows 21.3 points per game (#54 in the FBS).
BOIS offense vs USU defense Even
- USU allows 18% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for BOIS).
- USU allows 10% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for BOIS).
Projected: 32.5 points, 224 passing and 245 rushing yards. USU allows 22.0 points per game (#63 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Dylan Riley (BOIS, RB) -1000
- Sire Gaines (BOIS, RB) -175
- Javen Jacobs (USU, RB) -135
#24 Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks
UK offense vs SC defense Even
- SC allows 30% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UK).
- SC allows 15% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for UK).
Projected: 37.4 points, 233 passing and 143 rushing yards. SC allows 24.8 points per game (#84 in the FBS).
SC offense vs UK defense Even
- UK allows third-down conversions 21% more often than an average FBS defense (good for SC).
- UK allows 13% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SC).
Projected: 42.1 points, 268 passing and 237 rushing yards. UK allows 25.0 points per game (#88 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Matt Fuller (SC, RB) -170
- CJ Baxter (UK, RB) -155
- Jason Patterson (UK, RB) +100
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 5. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 5 plus any Week 5 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
Real data. Clearer decisions.
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