College Football Week 4 Betting Preview: Top 25 Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props
18 games with an AP Top 25 team in Week 4, 6 of them ranked against ranked. The biggest favorite is MIA -49.5 (CMU at MIA). The highest total is 80.5 in MISS at FLA. For every game with a ranked team: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy’s NCAAF Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.
- #1 TEX @ #14 TENN
- #4 MISS @ #21 FLA
- #23 TA&M @ #10 LSU
- #20 ORE @ #12 USC
- #17 IOWA @ #18 MICH
- #19 MIZ @ #24 MSST
- OU @ #2 UGA
- #3 ND @ PUR
- NU @ #5 IU
- CMU @ #6 MIA
- ILL @ #7 OSU
- SC @ #8 ALA
- SHSU @ #11 TTU
- WIS @ #13 PSU
- #15 UTAH @ ISU
- WAKE @ #16 LOU
- MOST @ #22 SMU
- #25 HOU @ GASO
#1 Texas Longhorns at #14 Tennessee Volunteers
TEX offense vs TENN defense Favors defense
- TENN allows 38% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TEX).
- TENN allows 31% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for TEX).
Projected: 23.4 points, 179 passing and 183 rushing yards. TENN allows 14.0 points per game (#26 in the FBS).
TENN offense vs TEX defense Favors defense
- TEX allows 47% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
- TEX allows 18% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TENN).
Projected: 25.4 points, 186 passing and 245 rushing yards. TEX allows 12.0 points per game (#17 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- DeSean Bishop (TENN, RB) -160
- Hollywood Smothers (TEX, RB) -112
- Raleek Brown (TEX, RB) -105
#4 Ole Miss Rebels at #21 Florida Gators
MISS offense vs FLA defense Even
- FLA allows 29% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
- FLA allows 20% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for MISS).
Projected: 35.5 points, 376 passing and 81 rushing yards. FLA allows 21.0 points per game (#63 in the FBS).
FLA offense vs MISS defense Favors offense
- MISS allows 20% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for FLA).
- MISS allows 12% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for FLA).
Projected: 56.8 points, 314 passing and 295 rushing yards. MISS allows 23.7 points per game (#78 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jadan Baugh (FLA, RB) -425
- JT Lindsey (MISS, RB) -140
- Kewan Lacy (MISS, RB) -136
#23 Texas A&M Aggies at #10 LSU Tigers
TA&M offense vs LSU defense Favors defense
- LSU allows 75% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
- LSU allows 17% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for TA&M).
Projected: 32.9 points, 222 passing and 43 rushing yards. LSU allows 18.7 points per game (#50 in the FBS).
LSU offense vs TA&M defense Favors defense
- TA&M allows third-down conversions 39% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for LSU).
- TA&M allows 24% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for LSU).
Projected: 30.2 points, 255 passing and 162 rushing yards. TA&M allows 17.0 points per game (#39 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Sam Leavitt (LSU, QB) -210
- Dilin Jones (LSU, RB) -209
- Rueben Owens II (TA&M, RB) -110
#20 Oregon Ducks at #12 USC Trojans
ORE offense vs USC defense Even
- USC allows 14% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ORE).
- USC allows 12% more yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (good for ORE).
Projected: 50.2 points, 340 passing and 142 rushing yards. USC allows 22.8 points per game (#73 in the FBS).
USC offense vs ORE defense Favors defense
- ORE allows third-down conversions 41% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
- ORE allows 17% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for USC).
Projected: 42.0 points, 318 passing and 146 rushing yards. ORE allows 22.0 points per game (#69 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jordon Davison (ORE, RB) -230
- King Miller (USC, RB) -160
- Dierre Hill Jr. (ORE, RB) -148
#17 Iowa Hawkeyes at #18 Michigan Wolverines
IOWA offense vs MICH defense Favors defense
- MICH allows 42% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
- MICH allows 39% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for IOWA).
Projected: 21.4 points, 127 passing and 194 rushing yards. MICH allows 13.0 points per game (#21 in the FBS).
MICH offense vs IOWA defense Favors defense
- IOWA allows 81% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MICH).
- IOWA allows 50% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MICH).
Projected: 5.3 points, 95 passing and 73 rushing yards. IOWA allows 4.3 points per game (#1 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jordan Marshall (MICH, RB) -105
- Bryce Underwood (MICH, QB) +125
- Kamari Moulton (IOWA, RB) +130
#19 Missouri Tigers at #24 Mississippi State Bulldogs
MIZ offense vs MSST defense Favors defense
- MSST allows third-down conversions 25% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
- MSST allows 25% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIZ).
Projected: 35.2 points, 289 passing and 127 rushing yards. MSST allows 20.0 points per game (#57 in the FBS).
MSST offense vs MIZ defense Favors defense
- MIZ allows 34% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
- MIZ allows 23% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for MSST).
Projected: 36.2 points, 252 passing and 160 rushing yards. MIZ allows 17.3 points per game (#41 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Jamal Roberts (MIZ, RB) -260
- Fluff Bothwell (MSST, RB) -180
- Kamario Taylor (MSST, QB) -155
Oklahoma Sooners at #2 Georgia Bulldogs
OU offense vs UGA defense Favors defense
- UGA allows 66% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for OU).
- UGA allows 41% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for OU).
Projected: 14.8 points, 178 passing and 38 rushing yards. UGA allows 13.3 points per game (#23 in the FBS).
UGA offense vs OU defense Favors defense
- OU allows 66% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
- OU allows 49% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UGA).
Projected: 20.2 points, 146 passing and 212 rushing yards. OU allows 7.7 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Chauncey Bowens (UGA, RB) -182
- Nate Frazier (UGA, RB) -182
- Gunner Stockton (UGA, QB) -104
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers
ND offense vs PUR defense Favors offense
- PUR allows 61% more points than an average FBS defense (good for ND).
- PUR allows 56% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for ND).
Projected: 64.6 points, 326 passing and 203 rushing yards. PUR allows 36.3 points per game (#128 in the FBS).
PUR offense vs ND defense Favors defense
- ND allows 66% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for PUR).
- ND allows 56% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for PUR).
Projected: 13.4 points, 242 passing and 54 rushing yards. ND allows 7.7 points per game (#4 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Nolan James Jr. (ND, RB) -290
- Aneyas Williams (ND, RB) -210
- Jordan Faison (ND, WR) -141
Northwestern Wildcats at #5 Indiana Hoosiers
NU offense vs IU defense Favors defense
- IU allows 76% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for NU).
- IU allows 42% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for NU).
Projected: 8.9 points, 159 passing and 118 rushing yards. IU allows 5.3 points per game (#2 in the FBS).
IU offense vs NU defense Even
- NU allows 44% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for IU).
- NU allows 23% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for IU).
Projected: 26.8 points, 267 passing and 272 rushing yards. NU allows 12.5 points per game (#20 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Turbo Richard (IU, RB) -220
- Charlie Becker (IU, WR) -195
- Nick Marsh (IU, WR) -115
Central Michigan Chippewas at #6 Miami Hurricanes
CMU offense vs MIA defense Favors defense
- MIA allows 66% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for CMU).
- MIA allows 51% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for CMU).
Projected: 7.2 points, 45 passing and 75 rushing yards. MIA allows 11.0 points per game (#13 in the FBS).
MIA offense vs CMU defense Even
- CMU allows 24% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
- CMU allows 22% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for MIA).
Projected: 44.4 points, 271 passing and 273 rushing yards. CMU allows 19.3 points per game (#54 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Mark Fletcher Jr. (MIA, RB) -425
- Malachi Toney (MIA, WR) -300
- Jordan Lyle (MIA, RB) -130
Illinois Fighting Illini at #7 Ohio State Buckeyes
ILL offense vs OSU defense Favors defense
- OSU allows 56% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ILL).
- OSU allows 42% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for ILL).
Projected: 17.3 points, 156 passing and 99 rushing yards. OSU allows 10.0 points per game (#11 in the FBS).
OSU offense vs ILL defense Even
- No stat stands out: ILL is close to the FBS average on everything we track.
Projected: 43.6 points, 389 passing and 157 rushing yards. ILL allows 21.3 points per game (#65 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Bo Jackson (OSU, RB) -250
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU, WR) -240
- Collin Dixon (ILL, WR) +150
South Carolina Gamecocks at #8 Alabama Crimson Tide
SC offense vs ALA defense Even
- ALA allows 60% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for SC).
- ALA allows third-down conversions 36% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for SC).
Projected: 42.3 points, 278 passing and 111 rushing yards. ALA allows 21.0 points per game (#63 in the FBS).
ALA offense vs SC defense Favors defense
- SC allows 36% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
- SC allows 26% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ALA).
Projected: 35.3 points, 217 passing and 135 rushing yards. SC allows 16.7 points per game (#36 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Daniel Hill (ALA, RB) -210
- Ryan Williams () -140
- Keelon Russell (ALA, QB) -105
Sam Houston Bearkats at #11 Texas Tech Red Raiders
SHSU offense vs TTU defense Even
- TTU allows 34% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SHSU).
- TTU allows 23% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for SHSU).
Projected: 28.7 points, 463 passing and 83 rushing yards. TTU allows 20.0 points per game (#57 in the FBS).
TTU offense vs SHSU defense Favors defense
- SHSU allows 46% fewer passing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
- SHSU allows 40% fewer yards per pass attempt than an average FBS defense (tough for TTU).
Projected: 22.3 points, 135 passing and 225 rushing yards. SHSU allows 15.7 points per game (#29 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- J'Koby Williams (TTU, RB) -370
- Cameron Dickey (TTU, RB) -290
- Kenny Johnson (TTU, WR) -105
Wisconsin Badgers at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions
WIS offense vs PSU defense Favors defense
- PSU allows 67% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
- PSU allows third-down conversions 56% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for WIS).
Projected: 11.2 points, 111 passing and 116 rushing yards. PSU allows 7.3 points per game (#3 in the FBS).
PSU offense vs WIS defense Favors defense
- WIS allows third-down conversions 25% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for PSU).
- WIS allows 18% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for PSU).
Projected: 37.6 points, 254 passing and 168 rushing yards. WIS allows 20.0 points per game (#57 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Carson Hansen (PSU, RB) -160
- Cam Wallace (PSU, RB) +171
- Chase Sowell (PSU, WR) +175
#15 Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones
UTAH offense vs ISU defense Favors defense
- ISU allows 51% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
- ISU allows 37% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for UTAH).
Projected: 23.1 points, 200 passing and 146 rushing yards. ISU allows 11.0 points per game (#13 in the FBS).
ISU offense vs UTAH defense Favors defense
- UTAH allows 64% fewer points than an average FBS defense (tough for ISU).
- UTAH allows 44% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for ISU).
Projected: 12.6 points, 122 passing and 115 rushing yards. UTAH allows 8.0 points per game (#6 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH, RB) -160
- Aiden Flora (ISU, RB) -105
- Devon Dampier (UTAH, QB) +115
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #16 Louisville Cardinals
WAKE offense vs LOU defense Favors offense
- LOU allows 26% more points than an average FBS defense (good for WAKE).
- LOU allows 22% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for WAKE).
Projected: 40.3 points, 358 passing and 166 rushing yards. LOU allows 28.3 points per game (#108 in the FBS).
LOU offense vs WAKE defense Favors offense
- WAKE allows 26% more points than an average FBS defense (good for LOU).
- WAKE allows third-down conversions 22% more often than an average FBS defense (good for LOU).
Projected: 57.9 points, 330 passing and 249 rushing yards. WAKE allows 28.3 points per game (#108 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Isaac Brown (LOU, RB) -170
- Lincoln Kienholz (LOU, QB) -145
- Keyjuan Brown (LOU, RB) -145
Missouri State Bears at #22 SMU Mustangs
MOST offense vs SMU defense Even
- SMU allows third-down conversions 50% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for MOST).
- SMU allows 32% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for MOST).
Projected: 26.7 points, 173 passing and 208 rushing yards. SMU allows 25.0 points per game (#90 in the FBS).
SMU offense vs MOST defense Favors offense
- MOST allows 56% more rushing yards than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
- MOST allows 39% more points than an average FBS defense (good for SMU).
Projected: 52.9 points, 344 passing and 262 rushing yards. MOST allows 31.3 points per game (#116 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Kendrick Raphael (SMU, RB) -475
- Dramekco Green (SMU, RB) -120
- Yamir Knight (SMU, WR) +105
#25 Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern Eagles
HOU offense vs GASO defense Favors defense
- GASO allows 33% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
- GASO allows third-down conversions 31% less often than an average FBS defense (tough for HOU).
Projected: 35.6 points, 216 passing and 176 rushing yards. GASO allows 17.7 points per game (#45 in the FBS).
GASO offense vs HOU defense Even
- HOU allows 53% fewer rushing yards than an average FBS defense (tough for GASO).
- HOU allows 24% more passing yards than an average FBS defense (good for GASO).
Projected: 17.3 points, 324 passing and 58 rushing yards. HOU allows 18.0 points per game (#46 in the FBS).
Shortest anytime TD prices
- Makhi Hughes (HOU, RB) -200
- Amare Thomas (HOU, WR) -145
- Conner Weigman (HOU, QB) -135
How to read this: games are listed ranked-vs-ranked first, then by the best rank in the game; ranks are the AP poll released for Week 4. Each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the average FBS defense, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (138 FBS teams, games before Week 4 plus any Week 4 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.
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