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2026 NFL · Week 7

NFL Week 7 Betting Preview: Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props

14 games on the Week 7 slate. The biggest favorite is HOU -10 (NYG at HOU). The highest total is 55.5 in GB at DET. For every game: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.

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New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field · Final: NE 24, CHI 30

Team trends: New England Patriots · Chicago Bears

SpreadCHI -3opened CHI -2.5
Total50.5

NE offense vs CHI defense Even

  • CHI gets 47% more sacks than an average defense (tough for NE).
  • CHI allows 19% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for NE).

Projected: 234 passing and 107 rushing yards. CHI allows 19.8 points per game (#6 in the NFL).

CHI offense vs NE defense Favors defense

  • NE allows 17% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for CHI).
  • NE allows 17% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for CHI).

Projected: 216 passing and 134 rushing yards. NE allows 18.8 points per game (#5 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. D'Andre Swift (CHI, RB) -164
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, RB) -105
  3. A.J. Brown (NE, WR) +135

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · Stade de France · Final: PIT 16, NO 10

Team trends: Pittsburgh Steelers · New Orleans Saints

SpreadPIT -3opened PIT -2
Total43.5

PIT offense vs NO defense Favors offense

  • NO allows 25% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for PIT).
  • NO allows 16% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for PIT).

Projected: 241 passing and 124 rushing yards. NO allows 29.7 points per game (#31 in the NFL).

NO offense vs PIT defense Favors defense

  • PIT allows 17% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for NO).
  • PIT gets 15% more sacks than an average defense (tough for NO).

Projected: 208 passing and 91 rushing yards. PIT allows 21.3 points per game (#12 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Jaylen Warren (PIT, RB) -112
  2. Kendre Miller (NO, RB) +170
  3. DK Metcalf (PIT, WR) +170

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final: SF 20, ATL 29

Team trends: San Francisco 49ers · Atlanta Falcons

SpreadSF -2.5opened SF -4.5
Total49.5

SF offense vs ATL defense Even

  • ATL allows 24% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for SF).
  • ATL allows 14% more passing yards than an average defense (good for SF).

Projected: 273 passing and 97 rushing yards. ATL allows 25.5 points per game (#23 in the NFL).

ATL offense vs SF defense Favors defense

  • SF allows 26% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for ATL).
  • SF allows 18% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for ATL).

Projected: 185 passing and 123 rushing yards. SF allows 18.3 points per game (#4 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB) -300
  2. Christian McCaffrey (SF, RB) -250
  3. George Kittle (SF, TE) +105

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · Final: CLE 27, TEN 24

Team trends: Cleveland Browns · Tennessee Titans

SpreadCLE -1.5
Total36.5

CLE offense vs TEN defense Even

  • TEN gets 22% more sacks than an average defense (tough for CLE).
  • TEN allows 12% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for CLE).

Projected: 173 passing and 105 rushing yards. TEN allows 21.5 points per game (#13 in the NFL).

TEN offense vs CLE defense Favors defense

  • CLE gets 32% more sacks than an average defense (tough for TEN).
  • CLE allows 27% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for TEN).

Projected: 143 passing and 85 rushing yards. CLE allows 20.3 points per game (#7 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Tony Pollard (TEN, RB) +123
  2. Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB) +187
  3. Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE, TE) +210

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium · Final: TB 43, CAR 13

Team trends: Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Carolina Panthers

SpreadCAR -3
Total44.5

TB offense vs CAR defense Favors offense

  • CAR allows 28% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for TB).
  • CAR allows 24% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for TB).

Projected: 166 passing and 154 rushing yards. CAR allows 24.6 points per game (#21 in the NFL).

CAR offense vs TB defense Even

  • TB allows 31% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for CAR).
  • TB gets 24% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for CAR).

Projected: 300 passing and 75 rushing yards. TB allows 23.0 points per game (#17 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Chuba Hubbard (CAR, RB) -125
  2. Bucky Irving (TB, RB) +115
  3. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR, WR) +135

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium · Final: CIN 35, BAL 13

Team trends: Cincinnati Bengals · Baltimore Ravens

SpreadCIN -3opened BAL -3.5
Total46.5

CIN offense vs BAL defense Favors defense

  • BAL gets 10% more sacks than an average defense (tough for CIN).
  • BAL allows 9% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for CIN).

Projected: 248 passing and 76 rushing yards. BAL allows 22.0 points per game (#15 in the NFL).

BAL offense vs CIN defense Even

  • CIN gets 43% more sacks than an average defense (tough for BAL).
  • CIN allows 31% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for BAL).

Projected: 217 passing and 169 rushing yards. CIN allows 21.8 points per game (#14 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Derrick Henry (BAL, RB) -185
  2. Chase Brown (CIN, RB) -105
  3. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, WR) +105

New York Giants at Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium · Final: NYG 27, HOU 21

Team trends: New York Giants · Houston Texans

SpreadHOU -10opened HOU -7.5
Total42.5

NYG offense vs HOU defense Even

  • HOU allows 36% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for NYG).
  • HOU allows 25% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for NYG).

Projected: 255 passing and 79 rushing yards. HOU allows 23.8 points per game (#20 in the NFL).

HOU offense vs NYG defense Favors offense

  • NYG gets 37% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for HOU).
  • NYG allows 25% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for HOU).

Projected: 233 passing and 104 rushing yards. NYG allows 23.3 points per game (#19 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Woody Marks (HOU, RB) -115
  2. Nico Collins (HOU, WR) +130
  3. Dalton Schultz (HOU, TE) +200

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final: IND 10, MIN 16

Team trends: Indianapolis Colts · Minnesota Vikings

SpreadMIN -7opened MIN -5.5
Total42.5

IND offense vs MIN defense Favors defense

  • MIN allows 58% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for IND).
  • MIN gets 53% more sacks than an average defense (tough for IND).

Projected: 157 passing and 88 rushing yards. MIN allows 12.8 points per game (#1 in the NFL).

MIN offense vs IND defense Favors offense

  • IND gets 22% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for MIN).
  • IND allows 11% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for MIN).

Projected: 173 passing and 129 rushing yards. IND allows 27.3 points per game (#27 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB) -118
  2. Aaron Jones (MIN, RB) +125
  3. Justin Jefferson (MIN, WR) +155

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · Final: MIA 28, NYJ 25

Team trends: Miami Dolphins · New York Jets

SpreadNYJ -3.5opened NYJ -4.5
Total39.5

MIA offense vs NYJ defense Favors defense

  • NYJ gets 27% more sacks than an average defense (tough for MIA).
  • NYJ allows 21% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for MIA).

Projected: 129 passing and 142 rushing yards. NYJ allows 20.3 points per game (#7 in the NFL).

NYJ offense vs MIA defense Favors offense

  • MIA gets 58% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for NYJ).
  • MIA allows 9% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for NYJ).

Projected: 195 passing and 95 rushing yards. MIA allows 26.4 points per game (#24 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB) -110
  2. Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR) +175
  3. Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB) +180

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium · Final: DEN 30, ARI 16

Team trends: Denver Broncos · Arizona Cardinals

SpreadDEN -4.5
Total44.5

DEN offense vs ARI defense Favors offense

  • ARI allows 25% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for DEN).
  • ARI allows 19% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for DEN).

Projected: 175 passing and 92 rushing yards. ARI allows 29.7 points per game (#31 in the NFL).

ARI offense vs DEN defense Favors defense

  • DEN allows 27% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for ARI).
  • DEN gets 20% more sacks than an average defense (tough for ARI).

Projected: 200 passing and 122 rushing yards. DEN allows 20.8 points per game (#10 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. J.K. Dobbins (DEN, RB) +120
  2. Trey McBride (ARI, TE) +125
  3. Jaylen Waddle (DEN, WR) +185

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Ford Field · Final: GB 17, DET 20

Team trends: Green Bay Packers · Detroit Lions

SpreadDET -3.5
Total55.5

GB offense vs DET defense Favors offense

  • DET allows 35% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for GB).
  • DET allows 35% more passing yards than an average defense (good for GB).

Projected: 363 passing and 58 rushing yards. DET allows 29.6 points per game (#30 in the NFL).

DET offense vs GB defense Even

  • GB allows 29% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for DET).
  • GB allows 25% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for DET).

Projected: 245 passing and 119 rushing yards. GB allows 20.8 points per game (#10 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) -425
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, WR) -145
  3. Josh Jacobs (GB, RB) +100

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium · Final: LAR 35, LV 21

Team trends: Los Angeles Rams · Las Vegas Raiders

SpreadLAR -3.5opened LAR -6.5
Total49.5

LAR offense vs LV defense Favors offense

  • LV allows 23% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for LAR).
  • LV allows 22% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for LAR).

Projected: 311 passing and 138 rushing yards. LV allows 27.0 points per game (#26 in the NFL).

LV offense vs LAR defense Even

  • LAR gets 34% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for LV).
  • LAR allows 28% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for LV).

Projected: 200 passing and 91 rushing yards. LAR allows 23.0 points per game (#17 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Kyren Williams (LAR, RB) -155
  2. Ashton Jeanty (LV, RB) -127
  3. Puka Nacua (LAR, WR) +105

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field · Final: KC 3, SEA 20

Team trends: Kansas City Chiefs · Seattle Seahawks

SpreadSEA -3opened SEA -2.5
Total43

KC offense vs SEA defense Favors defense

  • SEA allows 53% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for KC).
  • SEA allows 36% fewer passing yards than an average defense (tough for KC).

Projected: 163 passing and 139 rushing yards. SEA allows 20.3 points per game (#7 in the NFL).

SEA offense vs KC defense Favors defense

  • KC allows 44% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for SEA).
  • KC gets 35% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for SEA).

Projected: 222 passing and 86 rushing yards. KC allows 16.6 points per game (#2 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB) -130
  2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, WR) +110
  3. Emanuel Wilson (SEA, RB) +115

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · Final: DAL 38, PHI 21

Team trends: Dallas Cowboys · Philadelphia Eagles

SpreadDAL -4
Total43.5

DAL offense vs PHI defense Favors offense

  • PHI gets 45% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for DAL).
  • PHI allows 17% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for DAL).

Projected: 296 passing and 82 rushing yards. PHI allows 22.8 points per game (#16 in the NFL).

PHI offense vs DAL defense Favors offense

  • DAL allows 36% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for PHI).
  • DAL gets 34% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for PHI).

Projected: 183 passing and 112 rushing yards. DAL allows 26.5 points per game (#25 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Javonte Williams (DAL, RB) -154
  2. Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB) +110
  3. CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR) +125

How to read this: each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the league average, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (32 teams, games before Week 7 plus any Week 7 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.

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