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2026 NFL · Week 9

NFL Week 9 Betting Preview: Lines, Matchup Trends and TD Props

15 games on the Week 9 slate. The biggest favorite is SEA -11.5 (ARI at SEA). The highest total is 51.5 in CIN at ATL. For every game: the consensus spread and total, how each offense matches up with the defense it faces (the same numbers as Livdy Defense Rankings), and the three shortest anytime touchdown prices.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium

Team trends: Jacksonville Jaguars · Baltimore Ravens

SpreadJAX -9.5opened BAL -2.5
Total40.5

JAX offense vs BAL defense Even

  • BAL allows 14% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for JAX).
  • BAL allows 9% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for JAX).

Projected: 237 passing and 112 rushing yards. BAL allows 25.4 points per game (#22 in the NFL).

BAL offense vs JAX defense Even

  • JAX allows 31% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for BAL).
  • JAX allows 31% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for BAL).

Projected: 238 passing and 92 rushing yards. JAX allows 15.9 points per game (#2 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Bhayshul Tuten (JAX, RB) -110
  2. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX, RB) -106
  3. Derrick Henry (BAL, RB) -105

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET · Santiago Bernabéu

Team trends: Cincinnati Bengals · Atlanta Falcons

SpreadCIN -3
Total51.5

CIN offense vs ATL defense Even

  • ATL gets 10% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for CIN).
  • ATL allows 9% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for CIN).

Projected: 294 passing and 84 rushing yards. ATL allows 23.6 points per game (#17 in the NFL).

ATL offense vs CIN defense Even

  • CIN gets 34% more sacks than an average defense (tough for ATL).
  • CIN allows 30% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for ATL).

Projected: 204 passing and 146 rushing yards. CIN allows 22.6 points per game (#14 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Bijan Robinson (ATL, RB) -250
  2. Chase Brown (CIN, RB) -160
  3. Ja'Marr Chase (CIN, WR) -118

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium

Team trends: New York Jets · Kansas City Chiefs

SpreadKC -9.5
Total46.5

NYJ offense vs KC defense Even

  • KC gets 45% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for NYJ).
  • KC allows 35% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for NYJ).

Projected: 218 passing and 90 rushing yards. KC allows 18.7 points per game (#4 in the NFL).

KC offense vs NYJ defense Favors defense

  • NYJ gets 19% more sacks than an average defense (tough for KC).
  • NYJ allows 13% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for KC).

Projected: 220 passing and 147 rushing yards. NYJ allows 23.5 points per game (#16 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Kenneth Walker III (KC, RB) -215
  2. Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB) +110
  3. Breece Hall (NYJ, RB) +115

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Team trends: Detroit Lions · Miami Dolphins

SpreadDET -7
Total50.5

DET offense vs MIA defense Favors offense

  • MIA gets 32% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for DET).
  • MIA allows 9% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for DET).

Projected: 266 passing and 132 rushing yards. MIA allows 25.9 points per game (#24 in the NFL).

MIA offense vs DET defense Even

  • DET allows 26% more passing yards than an average defense (good for MIA).
  • DET allows 25% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for MIA).

Projected: 210 passing and 106 rushing yards. DET allows 25.7 points per game (#23 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, RB) -425
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET, WR) -130
  3. Ollie Gordon II (MIA, RB) +120

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field

Team trends: New York Giants · Philadelphia Eagles

SpreadNYG -3.5opened NYG -1.5
Total39.5

NYG offense vs PHI defense Favors offense

  • PHI gets 46% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for NYG).
  • PHI allows 18% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for NYG).

Projected: 246 passing and 136 rushing yards. PHI allows 25.3 points per game (#21 in the NFL).

PHI offense vs NYG defense Even

  • NYG gets 39% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for PHI).
  • NYG allows 31% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for PHI).

Projected: 149 passing and 100 rushing yards. NYG allows 23.0 points per game (#15 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Saquon Barkley (PHI, RB) +100
  2. Cam Skattebo (NYG, RB) +100
  3. Malik Nabers (NYG, WR) +155

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

Team trends: Los Angeles Rams · Washington Commanders

SpreadLAR -5.5
Total47.5

LAR offense vs WSH defense Favors offense

  • WSH allows 33% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for LAR).
  • WSH allows 12% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for LAR).

Projected: 287 passing and 110 rushing yards. WSH allows 26.0 points per game (#26 in the NFL).

WSH offense vs LAR defense Favors defense

  • LAR gets 32% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for WSH).
  • LAR allows 28% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for WSH).

Projected: 176 passing and 123 rushing yards. LAR allows 21.0 points per game (#12 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Kyren Williams (LAR, RB) -140
  2. Puka Nacua (LAR, WR) -135
  3. Blake Corum (LAR, RB) -105

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

Team trends: Denver Broncos · Carolina Panthers

SpreadDEN -3opened DEN -2.5
Total43.5

DEN offense vs CAR defense Favors offense

  • CAR allows 34% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for DEN).
  • CAR gets 33% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for DEN).

Projected: 172 passing and 116 rushing yards. CAR allows 27.6 points per game (#28 in the NFL).

CAR offense vs DEN defense Even

  • DEN allows 20% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for CAR).
  • DEN allows 19% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for CAR).

Projected: 271 passing and 116 rushing yards. DEN allows 20.6 points per game (#11 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Chuba Hubbard (CAR, RB) -120
  2. Jonah Coleman (DEN, RB) -110
  3. Tetairoa McMillan (CAR, WR) +170

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome

Team trends: Cleveland Browns · New Orleans Saints

SpreadNO -1.5opened NO -2.5
Total43.5

CLE offense vs NO defense Even

  • NO allows 24% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for CLE).
  • NO gets 12% more sacks than an average defense (tough for CLE).

Projected: 217 passing and 121 rushing yards. NO allows 27.7 points per game (#29 in the NFL).

NO offense vs CLE defense Favors defense

  • CLE allows 19% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for NO).
  • CLE gets 14% more sacks than an average defense (tough for NO).

Projected: 206 passing and 97 rushing yards. CLE allows 21.6 points per game (#13 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Quinshon Judkins (CLE, RB) +100
  2. Kendre Miller (NO, RB) +130
  3. Alvin Kamara (NO, RB) +130

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

Team trends: Dallas Cowboys · Indianapolis Colts

SpreadDAL -5.5opened DAL -4.5
Total51.5

DAL offense vs IND defense Favors offense

  • IND allows 17% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for DAL).
  • IND allows 15% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for DAL).

Projected: 239 passing and 110 rushing yards. IND allows 27.8 points per game (#30 in the NFL).

IND offense vs DAL defense Favors offense

  • DAL allows 35% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for IND).
  • DAL gets 17% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for IND).

Projected: 185 passing and 158 rushing yards. DAL allows 26.6 points per game (#27 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Javonte Williams (DAL, RB) -240
  2. Jonathan Taylor (IND, RB) -225
  3. CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR) -135

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

Team trends: Houston Texans · Los Angeles Chargers

SpreadHOU -4.5opened HOU -3.5
Total40.5

HOU offense vs LAC defense Even

  • LAC allows 16% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for HOU).
  • LAC gets 11% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for HOU).

Projected: 229 passing and 94 rushing yards. LAC allows 25.0 points per game (#20 in the NFL).

LAC offense vs HOU defense Even

  • HOU allows 34% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for LAC).
  • HOU gets 21% more sacks than an average defense (tough for LAC).

Projected: 197 passing and 97 rushing yards. HOU allows 24.3 points per game (#18 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. David Montgomery (HOU, RB) -115
  2. Woody Marks (HOU, RB) +100
  3. Nico Collins (HOU, WR) +135

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · Levi's Stadium

Team trends: Las Vegas Raiders · San Francisco 49ers

SpreadSF -9.5
Total51.5

LV offense vs SF defense Favors defense

  • SF allows 24% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for LV).
  • SF allows 21% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for LV).

Projected: 254 passing and 61 rushing yards. SF allows 19.9 points per game (#6 in the NFL).

SF offense vs LV defense Favors offense

  • LV allows 30% more rushing yards than an average defense (good for SF).
  • LV allows 22% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for SF).

Projected: 262 passing and 165 rushing yards. LV allows 28.8 points per game (#31 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Christian McCaffrey (SF, RB) -260
  2. George Kittle (SF, TE) -115
  3. Ashton Jeanty (LV, RB) +110

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Team trends: Green Bay Packers · New England Patriots

SpreadNE -3opened NE -2.5
Total46.5

GB offense vs NE defense Favors defense

  • NE gets 21% more sacks than an average defense (tough for GB).
  • NE allows 18% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for GB).

Projected: 269 passing and 50 rushing yards. NE allows 20.3 points per game (#9 in the NFL).

NE offense vs GB defense Even

  • GB allows 19% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for NE).
  • GB allows 12% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for NE).

Projected: 227 passing and 121 rushing yards. GB allows 20.5 points per game (#10 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE, RB) -135
  2. Josh Jacobs (GB, RB) -130
  3. Matthew Golden (GB, WR) +150

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · Lumen Field

Team trends: Arizona Cardinals · Seattle Seahawks

SpreadSEA -11.5opened SEA -11
Total42.5

ARI offense vs SEA defense Favors defense

  • SEA allows 40% more red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (good for ARI).
  • SEA allows 37% fewer explosive pass plays than an average defense (tough for ARI).

Projected: 159 passing and 91 rushing yards. SEA allows 19.9 points per game (#7 in the NFL).

SEA offense vs ARI defense Favors offense

  • ARI gets 17% more sacks than an average defense (tough for SEA).
  • ARI allows 17% more explosive pass plays than an average defense (good for SEA).

Projected: 224 passing and 119 rushing yards. ARI allows 29.8 points per game (#32 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA, WR) -115
  2. Tyler Allgeier (ARI, RB) +100
  3. Michael Wilson (ARI, WR) +155

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET · Soldier Field

Team trends: Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Chicago Bears

SpreadCHI -6
Total46.5

TB offense vs CHI defense Even

  • CHI gets 35% more sacks than an average defense (tough for TB).
  • CHI allows 23% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for TB).

Projected: 131 passing and 130 rushing yards. CHI allows 20.0 points per game (#8 in the NFL).

CHI offense vs TB defense Favors defense

  • TB allows 29% fewer rushing yards than an average defense (tough for CHI).
  • TB allows 16% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for CHI).

Projected: 222 passing and 107 rushing yards. TB allows 18.9 points per game (#5 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. D'Andre Swift (CHI, RB) -190
  2. Bucky Irving (TB, RB) +110
  3. Kyle Monangai (CHI, RB) +145

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium

Team trends: Buffalo Bills · Minnesota Vikings

SpreadBUF -3.5opened BUF -2.5
Total46.5

BUF offense vs MIN defense Favors defense

  • MIN gets 69% more sacks than an average defense (tough for BUF).
  • MIN allows 58% fewer red-zone touchdowns than an average defense (tough for BUF).

Projected: 173 passing and 154 rushing yards. MIN allows 13.3 points per game (#1 in the NFL).

MIN offense vs BUF defense Favors offense

  • BUF gets 18% fewer sacks than an average defense (good for MIN).
  • BUF allows 16% more passing yards than an average defense (good for MIN).

Projected: 192 passing and 98 rushing yards. BUF allows 25.9 points per game (#24 in the NFL).

Shortest anytime TD prices

  1. Josh Allen (BUF, QB) -160
  2. James Cook (BUF, RB) -135
  3. Jordan Mason (MIN, RB) +135

How to read this: each lean compares what the defense allows per game with the league average, and the projections combine the offense’s own average with that (32 teams, games before Week 9 plus any Week 9 games already finished). A stat leans when the defense is 8% or more away from average; “Favors offense” means at least two more stats lean the offense’s way than the defense’s. Lines are the consensus across major US sportsbooks and update through the week; TD prices are the median across books. This page is research, not betting advice.

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